Risk premium causes wheat price to rise slightly again

The Russian President Vladimir Putin threatens with action against tankers from countries that support Ukraine. This threat causes the wheat price to rise slightly because the fear of disruption in grain exports increases. The most traded wheat contract on the futures market in Paris - that of March 2026 - climbs back to just above €190 per ton after Putin's threat. This means, as a result there are no groundbreaking changes in the market for now, rather ripples. There is also a slight increase in prices observable in Chicago. The month of December shows the largest increase, but there is hardly any trading in this contract yet. Compared to a week ago, December is now 10.5 cents higher at $5.37¾ per bushel. Converted to the European format, this means a price of €170 per ton. The March contract shows a smaller increase to $5.41 per bushel. Because the dollar has fallen slightly further in value, the wheat price of this contract is even slightly lower than last week; from €172 to €171 per ton. In contrast to the futures markets, local prices are actually going down somewhat. The Grain Exchange in Groningen reports that this week the wheat quotation drops €1 to €186 per ton. This ends the upward trend of recent weeks. According to the pricing committee in Groningen, the market is somewhat quieter than in the previous weeks, as the grain processing industry seems sufficiently stocked to carry on until the end of the year. EU exports need to gain momentum EU exports of soft wheat are approaching the 10 million ton mark. The export is thus proceeding at a similar pace to last year. This means that considerable momentum needs to be gained in the remainder of the year. The wheat harvest in the 27 member states was significantly larger this year compared to a year ago. According to the latest estimate from the European Commission, 134.2 million tons of soft wheat have been harvested this year. EU production is therefore 23.2 million tons (21%) larger than last year. Thus, there is also a significantly larger amount available for export. For now, the European Commission aims for an export of 31 million tons of soft wheat this year. This is a similar amount to two years ago. Last season, exports were limited to 21.5 million tons due to lower availability.