Gas price falls below €30, lowest in 18 months

The gas price has fallen to its lowest level in over a year and a half and for the first time since then is below €30 per MWh. The likelihood that the low filling level of the Dutch gas stocks will become a problem is unlikely given the good availability of gas and the mild winter months that seem to be approaching. The oil price is also dropping. This is all related to Trump's peace plan for the war in Ukraine. Brent oil, at the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, November 25), is trading at $62.18 per barrel, making it the lowest since October 21, 2025. This is primarily due to the US peace plan to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. If sanctions against Russia are lifted, more Russian oil will enter the world market, while there is already a surplus. Not that everything is set in stone. The biggest sticking point for Zelensky regarding the originally 28-point plan is that the country would have to cede territory to Russia that it has occupied. European leaders see little benefit in downsizing the Ukrainian military. Additionally, doubts about Putin's reliability are expressed, among others, by French President Macron. In any case, the prospect of peace and thus the lifting of sanctions is putting downward pressure on the oil price. Furthermore, the US Federal Reserve will meet again on December 10 for an interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again, which would stimulate the American economy and thereby increase demand for oil. Diesel cheaper The diesel price is also showing a downward trend. Last Wednesday (November 19), it was €137.25 per 100 liters ( for orders from 4,000 liters upward). On Tuesday afternoon, November 25, it is €131.45 per 100 liters. Gas price drops below 30 euros Lifting the sanctions against Russia could also restart the gas supply from the country. It is not completely silent, by the way. Despite the sanctions, 13% of the gas used in the EU still comes from Russia. Currently, the US is the largest gas supplier for the Netherlands, in the form of liquefied gas (LNG). Norway is a good second with its natural gas. According to a recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the export capacity of LNG from the US and Qatar is expanding enormously, and by 2030 about 300 billion cubic meters of LNG can be exported additionally per year. As previously reported, the filling levels of the European and Dutch gas stocks are lagging behind last year. According to the Dutch caretaker cabinet, this does not pose a problem for security of supply. Only if it becomes an extremely cold winter could there be a limited shortage, but according to the cabinet, that can be managed. According to weather forecasts, an extremely cold winter seems unlikely. According to Dutch weather service Weeronline, there is even a high chance of a mild winter. Statistically, there is a 75% chance of a mild winter since 19 winters have been milder than average since 2000, the weather service indicates. Furthermore, there are no signals of really cold winter weather in December, according to Weeronline, although it may freeze during clear nights at the beginning of the month. January and February are expected to be significantly milder than normal according to forecasting models. However, the scenarios for January vary. It may be that the month becomes somewhat colder due to cold easterly winds, the weather service indicates. The gas price is, at the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, November 25), at €29.29 per MWh on the TTF gas futures market, the lowest since over a year and a half (April 29, 2024). Electricity price shows spikes The European Power Exchange (Epex Spot) saw very high daily averages for two days last week. On the spot market for electricity, the price was €141.46 on Friday, November 21, and €147.57 per MWh on Tuesday, November 25.