Pressure remains on European fry prices, but nothing dramatic

French fry export figures for the EU-27 countries were under pressure in August and September of this year. A reduction of 5% is in line with the downturn for a twelve-month period. It’s not dramatically lower but enough to bring markets into turmoil.The EU-27 countries exported 148,500 tonnes of frozen French fries during September 2025, which is 5% less compared to the same month last year. The UK and Asian countries purchased significantly less product during that month. Virtually all destinations saw a decrease, although in some cases the decrease is small.Gains and lossesAsian markets are down by a fifth over a twelve-month period, which is caused by increasing market domination by China and India. The UK, Europe’s largest buyer, saw a 20% reduction in volume during September and has purchased 10% less fries during the twelve-month period. African destinations are performing much better, with 30% more volume exported during September and 20% more during the previous twelve months.North America shows only a 1.3% reduction during September and is still up 4% over the twelve-month period. Trump's tariffs seem to have little effect on European exports so far. Price pressureThe price per tonne remains under great pressure, with another price reduction during September. The average price for a tonne of frozen fries mounted to €1,115 per tonne during September, which is a €138 per tonne reduction (-10%). During the course of twelve months the price has now reduced almost 9%. The reason why African destinations might be buying more fries can be found in the price level. During September the average sales price dropped by 18% to €946 per tonne. There are still quite a few positive figures to be found in the European export list. For example: Colombia and Mexico both bought more fries and are showing significant gains over the course of twelve months. Brazil, which is the biggest South American buyer, did purchase less fries from Europe. Its imports from the EU-27 are 8.5% lower during the twelve-month period.EU-4 show stabilisationIt is a known fact that pressure on the EU-4 French fry producing countries (Belgium, Netherlands, France and Germany) is high this season. However, looking at the most recent August figures, it seems that the last month of summer brought stabilisation across the board. Belgium saw a 2% decline in exports and those of the Netherlands remained flat, with only a 0.7% decrease. France remains a growing player on the market with almost 12% more exports. Germany saw a minor gain of 4.3% but is down 5.6% over twelve months. With almost 40% growth France still shows a significant increase, which has everything to do with increased production capacity in the country. This could also be why the Belgium figures are lower – 5.8% during a twelve-month period – as some of the production capacity has been shifted over its southern border.It remains to be seen what detailed figures the EU-4 will display during September. It seems that this summer has not been bad for trade. Over a twelve-month period, the market is certainly lower in terms of volume and price, but reductions of 4% to 6% are not that extreme. The average price level dropped by almost 6% during August. Frozen fries are now 4% less expensive than they were a season ago, with prices remaining above the €1,200 level per tonne.French importsInterestingly, France is the biggest EU-4 destination for frozen fries, with volumes up a quarter during August and almost 5% during twelve months. This is likely related to re-exports. There is a good chance that those frozen fries will find their way on to the world market eventually, via French ports. Judging by the French availability of potatoes and processing capacity there is little reason why the imports of fries should be much higher.The UK continues to be the largest buyer (aside from France), but its French fry demand continues to decrease. Exports from the EU-4 dropped by almost a fifth to this destination. Export so Saudi-Arabia was marginally lower in August but saw a 11% reduction during the twelve-month course. Exports to the US remain flat whereas Brazil and Colombia purchased significantly more fries. How stiff the competition is, depends on the destination. Facts and moodAll in all, the EU-4 are not performing poorly. Sales are lower mainly in Asian countries and the UK. Lower prices have helped shift more fries. The export figures paint a different picture than the free-buy potato market in Europe at the moment. A reduction of no more than 6% is seemingly enough to put a market in turmoil. We should be careful though, as these figures are in between the old and new season. September shows further pressure and Q4 of 2025 might turn out to be negative for processors and their exports, judging by the current sentiment among the EU-4 processors.