Russian sabotage in Poland affects wheat in the US

It does seem a bit odd that sabotage on the Polish railway, possibly involving the Kremlin, has more influence on the grain trade in Chicago than in Paris. On the other hand, it is certainly not the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine that something has happened in Poland. This could explain the more subdued reaction in Europe. For the first time in a month and a half, a Crop Progress report from the US was released. In Brazil, erratic weather is hindering farmers from planting the last soybeans. The December contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €1.75 higher at €190 per ton. At the CBoT, wheat also stepped up and closed 17 cents higher at $5.44¼ per bushel. For corn, the increase was a more modest 4½ cents. The December corn contract on the Chicago exchange ended at $4.34¾ per bushel. Soybeans rose during the last trading session to the highest point in six months with a gain of 32¾ cents to $11.57¼ per bushel. Especially at the Chicago exchange, the war premium in the wheat price is being raised again. This is related to possible sabotage of a railway line in Poland. On the route from Warsaw to Lubin, an important route for transporting (military) supplies to Ukraine, a section of track was blown up near the town of Mika, and damage has also been reported further along the route, wrote Polish Prime Minister Tusk on X (formerly Twitter). The Polish authorities refer to sabotage attributed to foreign intelligence services. Accusatory fingerNo names are mentioned by Poland, but it is generally believed that the Kremlin is involved. The Polish authorities claim to be doing everything possible to identify the perpetrator. If it is actually proven that Russia played a role in the railway sabotage in Poland, tensions between the two countries and NATO (given that Poland is a member of the alliance) could escalate further. It seems almost as if traders in Chicago are more concerned about this than their colleagues in Paris. The Ikar price of Russian wheat also rose by $3 to $229 per ton. The export forecast for November has been kept unchanged by Ikar at 5.2 to 5.4 million tons. Competitor SovEcon slightly downgraded the export expectation for this month to 4.6 million tons. Closer to home, in France, farmers are nearly finished planting winter wheat. According to the new update from FranceAgriMer, 89% of the planned winter wheat area is in the ground compared to 76% this week last year and 83% in the five-year average. For the first time since September 28, we also have a Crop Progress report from America. This is, of course, due to the government shutdown, but does not change the fact that the (normally) weekly report is coming quite late. Most fieldwork for this season is completed. In the week ending November 16, 91% of the corn has been harvested compared to 94% in the five-year average and 98% last year. The harvesting of soybeans is also slightly behind, with 95% harvested this season compared to 96% in the five-year average and 98% last year. Of the planned winter wheat area, 92% is in the ground compared to 95% in the five-year average. The winter wheat is likely not doing as well as last season, partly due to the drought. 45% of the winter wheat area is rated good or excellent compared to 49% last year at this time. Correction on soybean exportThe USDA made a somewhat surprising correction regarding soybean exports yesterday. On Friday, the ministry announced that China had purchased 232,000 tons of soybeans in the US. Yesterday, the USDA stated that this was incorrect. The correct amount is 132,000 tons, as China canceled 100,000 tons. In Brazil, farmers are still busy planting soybeans. According to AgRural, 71% of the planned area has been planted, up from 61% last week. However, farmers are falling behind with planting. The five-year average stands at 80% planted this week. Due to erratic weather, planting between rain showers is challenging, according to AgRural.