Finally, hard figures are coming from the US again

For the first time in a long while, we have export figures from the US again. They do not make a big difference, but combined with the Wasde report - which is coming out again tonight (in Europe) after a brief hiatus - it creates some stir in the market. Tunisia has reportedly closed a tender for wheat. In Brazil, growers are busy planting soybeans. Due to drought, this is not going as smoothly in every area. The December contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday at €0.75 lower at €189.50 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed down ¼ cent at $5.35¾ per bushel. Corn showed an increase of 6¼ cents, ending at $4.41½ per bushel. Soybeans were the biggest riser in the last trading session with an increase of 11½ cents, closing at $11.32 per bushel. We had to wait a bit, but yesterday the USDA released export figures for the first time in more than a month. The USDA has set up a schedule for how the data will be made public. Essentially, the export figures for two weeks will be published every week. By early next year, the backlog in export figures will be cleared. The export figures from yesterday relate to what has been exported in the week ending September 25. The net soybean export for this week is 870,533 tonnes. This is at the upper end of the range of what analysts expect. Of the total export that the USDA predicts for the entire season, only 26% has been exported so far. In the five-year average, 46% of the annual export had already been completed in this period. The export of corn is progressing more smoothly. With a net export of 1.4 million tonnes, 37% of the forecasted exports for this season have already been executed. The five-year average stands at 31%. Wheat exports for the week ending September 25 amounted to 315,875 tonnes. This is at the lower end of the range of what analysts expect, but wheat exports are still somewhat ahead of corn exports. Wasde Due to the shutdown, the October edition of the Wasde report has been skipped, and the November version of the report will come a few days later than planned, namely tonight (in Europe). At the CBoT, positions are being taken ahead of the report, and one thing is becoming clear: traders and speculators have particularly good expectations for soybeans, partly due to the somewhat improved trade relations between China and the US. If it turns out that Beijing does not purchase the amounts of soybeans promised to Trump, a correction could come quickly, warning various analysts. A Reuters poll indicates that the trade expects the tone to be bearish in the Wasde report. For wheat, corn, and soybeans, participants expect the USDA to adjust ending stocks upward. Market bureau Expana has revised the wheat harvest of 2025 in the EU upward by 400,000 tonnes to 136.8 million tonnes. Thus, the harvest in the relatively dry year 2025 is 21% higher than the extremely wet season before. In various parts of the EU, such as Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, and Scandinavia, yield records were reportedly achieved according to the market bureau. For the upcoming harvest, Expana expects the area planted with wheat and barley in the EU to remain roughly the same. Tunisia has reportedly secured 125,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 100,000 tonnes of durum wheat in a tender. The price for soft wheat is said to be just under $258 per tonne C&F (cost and freight), and the average price for durum is reported at $325. According to sources, this would involve wheat from Europe in both cases, and delivery must occur partially in December and the rest in January. Local drought in Brazil In Brazil, the government agency Conab has announced a new yield estimate. The total soybean harvest in the country is estimated at 177.6 million tonnes. The area planted with soybeans is expected to increase by 3.6% compared to last season, reaching 49.1 million hectares. Due to drought, soybean planting in the states of Goiás and Minas Gerais is lagging behind other years according to Conab. On average for the entire country, the percentage of soybeans that has already been planted is around the multi-year average. The forecast for the corn harvest in Brazil stands at 138.8 million tonnes, which is 200,000 tonnes more than the previous estimate from Conab. The estimate for wheat remains unchanged at 7.7 million tonnes, but this is a small crop in Brazil. Source: USDA