Island market UK takes its own course in turbulent times

The United Kingdom has a completely unique potato market that is separate from the European mainland. Nevertheless, the country is not entirely insensitive to the situation in the EU-4, but prices are expected to remain stable for the time being. European exporters can draw hope from a large demand for fries. The consequences of Brexit have not only made trade between the EU and the UK more complex. There is a lack of reliable data on the country’s potato sector. Acreage and yield data often become available much later or may not be available at all. The disappearance of the government agency AHDB Potato has greatly contributed to this. Acreage stabilized In their most recent estimate, the Ministry of Agriculture, Defra, mentions an acreage of 99,000 hectares of potatoes this year. This likely only concerns ware potatoes, as the total acreage was 118,000 hectares in 2024. Insiders expect that the acreage has remained stable or possibly increased slightly this year. The total acreage is therefore around 120,000 hectares, with about 100,000 hectares for the cultivation of ware potatoes. The potato acreage in the UK declined for thirteen consecutive years. In 2012, the acreage of table potatoes was almost 50,000 hectares larger. A low point was reached in 2023, and in the last two years, cultivation has stabilized. It has become a crop for large, professional companies that can earn a good living from it. Last year, according to Defra, 4 million tonnes of ware potatoes and 539,000 tonnes of seed potatoes were harvested. A similar volume is expected by insiders for 2025, although official figures are lacking. In some growing regions, yields per hectare are clearly better, but this is not the case everywhere. Water supplies The growing season of 2025 was characterized by drought, especially during the first half of the year. In September and October, average amounts of rainfall fell, but there was no such occurrence in the first eight months. As a result, water supplies were filled to 63.5% of their storage capacity at the beginning of November, compared to a long-term average of 75%. There are significant regional differences, as in the south and southwest, the reservoirs are only 30% filled. This raises great concerns for government agencies and farmers for the next season. Until November 1, only 61% of the average amount of rain fell this year. A wet winter is needed to have sufficient water next year. The main cultivation area for table potatoes is in Eastern England. It is typically dry there, although growers also have good irrigation options. However, this has not helped everyone, as water reservoirs dried up prematurely this season. A combination of early planting dates and many hours of sunshine has ensured that yields here are usually above average. This is also true for Scottish potato growers. Greater damage has been suffered due to drought in the west and south. The harvest is now almost completed. The fact that the lifting was delayed due to a shortage of crates and the establishment of emergency storage says enough about the size of the harvest this year. In addition, buyers have collected fewer potatoes, which has also not improved the situation. Higher prices After two years of extremely high prices due to a lower acreage and smaller harvest, the current season is a completely different story. Compared to the European mainland, the British potato market remains quite robust. This primarily concerns free-buy potatoes for the fish & chips trade. For the most popular variety, Maris Piper, €17 to €19 per 100 kilos is paid for sorted and bagged products. Sagitta sells between €16 and €19, and for Agria and Markies, €22.80 to €25 per 100 kilos is paid. These amounts are more than double what is paid, for example, in the Netherlands for Agria, noting that this concerns sorted products. Nonetheless, British farmers feel pressure in the market. On the one hand, due to the harvest at home, and on the other hand, the pressure from the European mainland is increasing. Whether more potatoes and potato products cross the border will only be shown by export figures in a few months. Influencing the mood is currently enough.Opportunities for fries From a European perspective, the British market offers opportunities, particularly for the end product fries. The country has already been the largest buyer of European fries, but has further expanded its position in recent years. Up to August, the export volume of fries this year is 3.9% higher than in the same period last year. Belgium supplied one-fifth more fries to the country. The Netherlands saw its exported volume decrease by 17%, and Germany sold 12.3% fewer fries to the English. Until the spring, the fries export to the UK was still quite good, but last summer it took a downturn. In August, just over 68,000 tonnes were imported, compared to 73,345 tonnes last year. This is a decline of 7.2%. A seasonal pattern is noticeable in which fries sales always decrease somewhat in July, August, and September, only to pick up again towards the end of the year. Last year in October, the highest level of 2024 was reached: 78,739 tonnes. Market dominance Due to geographic advantages, European exporters have little to fear from competition in the British market. It is primarily the Belgians who manage to make the crossing, with a volume that is twice as large as what the Netherlands supplies. France is a significant riser, although its volume of 2,374 tonnes is just a fraction of the total. This primarily comes at the expense of German imports. China supplied 244 tonnes of fries this year until September, where previously it did not participate at all. India is even absent altogether, even though that country has close ties with the island. At the end of last year, the Netherlands managed to sell a considerable volume of table potatoes to the UK. Between October and December, 8,830 tonnes of potatoes were exported, compared to 1,772 tonnes the previous year. Additionally, 1,500 tonnes were still exported in July. It remains to be seen whether the export of potatoes in Q4 can show good figures again due to the reasonably good harvest in England. Especially now that the market is full, which puts pressure on it. If demand arises, it is primarily for premium varieties such as Agria and Innovator. Market and demand stable The potato market in the UK is likely to fluctuate around the current level over the coming weeks, or prices may decrease slightly. On the one hand, there is ongoing pressure due to good availability. On the other hand, growers are facing quality issues here and there, such as bruising due to dry harvesting conditions or internal defects. With a market that has its own dynamics, it knows how to perform better than on the other side of the Channel. The demand for frozen fries remains healthy for the time being. Belgian and Dutch exporters have little to fear from competition, as long as they remain price competitive.