Russian farmers plant less wheat | DCA Market Intelligence

The grain market is having some trouble choosing a direction. Russian farmers are planting less wheat, but it will naturally take another small year before anything is noticeable in the physical market. In Europe, wheat exports are still not going particularly well, but the backlog in exports compared to last season is being reduced somewhat. In the US, federal employees are back to work after a 43-day shutdown. The fact that many figures regarding, among other things, exports and harvests were not published during that period could cause extra volatility in the coming days. The December contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €1 higher at €190.25 per tonne. At the CBoT, wheat remained unchanged at $5.36 per bushel. Corn closed the last trading session 3¼ cents higher at $5.36 per bushel. Soybeans were the biggest riser, increasing by 7¼ cents to $11.20½ per bushel. Russia is expected to harvest less wheat in 2026 than in 2025, at least according to SovEcon in the first forecast for the 2026 harvest. The wheat harvest of 2026 is estimated at 83.8 million tonnes, down from 87.8 million tonnes last harvest. The smaller harvest in Russia is due to an expected decrease in the area planted with wheat in the country, which is the world's largest wheat exporter. In total, Russia has harvested 140 million tonnes of grain this season, reported Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev via the Russian news agency Interfax. Earlier, Interfax reported that at least 135 million tonnes of grain have been threshed in Russia. Wheat was less affected by drought than corn The French Ministry of Agriculture provided an update on the harvest figures. The yield of wheat has been reduced by 100,000 compared to the October figures to 33.3 million tonnes. This makes the harvest of 2025 30% larger than that of 2024, and the total wheat yield in France this season is 4.7% above the five-year average. The yield of winter barley has been slightly reduced from 8.4 million tonnes to 8.36 million tonnes. The harvest of rapeseed has been kept stable by the French ministry at 4.6 million tonnes. Corn has performed less well than previously expected. In October, the ministry estimated 13.5 million tonnes, which has now been revised down to 13.2 million tonnes. Due to the heat and drought, the French corn harvest is nearly 10% lower than last season. European wheat exports are still lagging behind last season, but the gap is getting smaller. In the ongoing season up to and including November 9, the EU exported 8.4 million tonnes of wheat, as indicated by new figures from the European Commission. Last season, 4% more was exported over the same period, totaling 8.7 million tonnes. Morocco is the largest importer of wheat at 1.5 million tonnes. The export of barley is more than double compared to last season. The EU has already exported 3.9 million tonnes of barley this season compared to 1.8 million tonnes last season. The import of corn is 25% behind last season. So far, the EU has imported 5.6 million tonnes of corn compared to 7.5 million tonnes last season. Back to work After 43 days, the shutdown of the US government has come to an end. All services that were closed due to the government shutdown are not yet fully operational. A Wasde report is scheduled for this coming Friday. This was announced regardless of whether the shutdown has ended. With more than a month of little data from the USDA, some analysts expect that volatility in the market surrounding the November edition of the Wasde report will not be any less. The USDA has not been able to adjust US exports in the meantime. Especially in soybeans, where Trump has made strong statements about demand from China, this could lead to a surprise. According to some sources, China is facing a surplus of soybeans after months of record imports. This limits the outlook for US exports, despite a recent trade agreement, which Washington claims includes a promise from Beijing to purchase large volumes of soybeans in the US again. Chinese buyers purchased more soybeans in South America earlier this year. US soybeans were avoided due to fears of the trade war with Washington. If the USDA sends a positive signal for soybeans in the Wasde report, it could negatively affect exports, some sources warn. Compared to Brazil, US soybeans are already more expensive, and if the Wasde report triggers a new rally at the CBoT that Brazil and Argentina do not follow, then the US risks pricing itself out of the market according to some analysts.