Wheat price on world market back to square one

There is some buying interest in the international wheat market, but at this moment it cannot lift the mood. The large global supply and the smooth sowing of winter wheat have once again suppressed a temporary rise in prices. Locally, we do see a slight increase this week, but internationally the direction is down again. The Grain Exchange in Groningen quotes this week €1 higher at €185 per ton. This means the market here is still a bit higher than the €178 per ton from the beginning of October. This does not change the fact that the price level remains low, but it is at least a bit friendlier. In Paris, the closing quote on Tuesday, November 11, dropped to €189.25 per ton. Thus, the price is below €190 per ton for the first time since October 23. This rise in the wheat price that subsequently occurred proved to be short-lived. Mid-last week, trading was done at just over €195 per ton. After that, the path downward was initiated and the price gains of recent weeks have completely disappeared again. Soft wheat in Chicago has dropped in a week from $5.50¼ to $5.36 per bushel. This translates to a price drop from €176 to €170 per ton. Additionally, the dollar has slightly decreased in value over the past week. Price pressure Pessimism has regained control in the wheat market. Price pressure has been fueled by the large supply this marketing season and the favorable conditions for sowing for the new season in the northern hemisphere. This is reinforced by, among other things, a quick sowing in Ukraine and the expectation that the area there will increase by nearly 4%. Reports from China indicate that a significant amount of winter wheat was sown in the past week; however, the sowing there is still behind previous years. Although there is some buying interest from various parties, it is not currently decisive in the direction of prices. After Egypt, Jordan and Algeria have also bought some wheat. The focus is primarily on shipments from the Black Sea region. Export lags behind The export from the European Union is still slightly behind last season. Until the end of last week, according to preliminary figures from the European Commission, a total of about 8.4 million tons of wheat has been exported. Follow-up shipments will likely erase the shortfall compared to the 8.7 million tons in the same period last year, but it does not change the fact that the export could use a boost. The harvest in the EU has been much larger this year, and based on that, there is significantly more wheat available for export. According to the latest update from the European Commission, the EU has harvested over 134 million tons of soft wheat this year, along with 8.3 million tons of hard durum wheat. This means that there is 22.6 million tons more soft wheat available this year, and nearly 1 million tons more of hard wheat. Fairly normal amount In a final estimate from the European Commission, a total export of 31 million tons of soft wheat is expected this season. That is a fairly normal amount and possibly a bit low considering the large harvest. On the other hand, it is nearly 10 million tons more than the amount exported to third countries last season according to the export overview. This means that wheat export still has a significant recovery to make in order to achieve this year's target. Morocco will not be the issue for now. That country is the largest buyer of EU wheat this season, with over 1.5 million tons. And Saudi Arabia is more active in the market than last year. It is more the traditional customers like Egypt and especially Algeria who are buying less. Nigeria was a large buyer of EU wheat last year, but exports to that country are now lagging behind significantly.