Frau Antje: Stability in a maturing Dutch market

Frau Antje prices have eased in line with broader cheese market trends, driven by short-term increases in milk supply. Despite this correction, the market reflects a more balanced and mature phase for Dutch cheese production. The long-term outlook remains steady, supported by a growing share of milk directed to cheese manufacturing and sustained demand from Germany. This report examines the forces behind this adjustment and how they are reshaping Frau Antje’s position within the Dutch cheese landscape.According to DCA Market Intelligence benchmarks, Frau Antje cheese was valued at €2,960 on October 28, marking a decline of 8.9% over the previous month and 37.5% year-on-year (YoY). Prices for Frau Antje showed a strong upward trajectory through the second half of 2024, reaching a peak of €4,985 on September 24, stabilizing through 2025, before starting to decline. Frau Antje is a Gouda-type semi-hard cheese, produced exclusively in the Netherlands and positioned as a premium export brand recognized for its consistent quality. Price movements show a close correlation with standard Gouda and Edam benchmarks of 99.6%, indicating that the products evolve in near-perfect alignment. As of the end of October 2025, Gouda and Edam were quoted at €2,870 and €2,840, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 37.2% and 38%. Despite the similar trajectory, Frau Antje consistently trades at a premium over conventional Dutch foil cheeses. In 2024, the average premium over Gouda stood at €101 per ton, narrowing to €81 per ton in 2025. The premium also became more stable over time, as reflected by a decline in its coefficient of variation from 42% in 2024 to 32% in 2025, indicating reduced price volatility.Supply Analysis Without available data on Frau Antje’s production, manufacturing is limited to dairies accredited under the brand’s origin and quality scheme. Frau Antje requires to use 100% Dutch milk and take place entirely within the Netherlands, ensuring full traceability and authenticity under the “Käse aus Holland” label. Consequently, Dutch milk and cheese production are directly linked to Frau Antje’s output. Dutch milk output rebounds, stabilizing supply base Dutch milk prices are a major determinant of Frau Antje’s production costs, exhibiting a strong positive correlation (0.87) with the cheese prices. Monthly, milk output began 2025 on a weak note, extending the downward trend observed in late 2024. Collections were 1.8% lower YoY in January and 5.9% lower in February, before gradually improving through the spring. By July, production turned positive (+0.9% YoY), followed by +4.8% in August and +6.8% in September. This temporary oversupply was the main contributor to the still positive cumulative result for 2025 (0.15% YoY), offsetting the weaker production seen at the start of the year. Cheese production softens Dutch cheese production continued to edge lower in 2025, extending the gradual decline of recent years. Total output reached 616,000 tons as of August, down 1.7 % YoY and 3% below 2023 levels. On a monthly basis, cheese output displayed modest volatility. Production fell 1.7% YoY in January and 4.4% in February, before rebounding 3.4% in March as milk inflows improved. After a short stabilization in spring, volumes softened again in early summer and turned positive in July (+1.1%). Overall, production dynamics point to a balanced but non-expansive environment, with temporary oversupply in the most recent months rather than structural contraction. According to ZuivelNL’s Figures 2024, Gouda-type cheeses accounted for around 60 % of the Netherlands’ total cheese production. Applying this share to 2025 output yields an estimated Gouda production of 369,600 tons up to August. Industry experts estimate that Frau Antje accounts for 5 % of Gouda production, cumulative output is estimated at approximately 18,480 tons YTD. Branded volumes therefore followed the national pattern, slightly lower year-on-year but overall stable, consistent with the broader trend in milk availability.Stable Demand from GermanyFrau Antje was created in the early 1960s by the Dutch Dairy Bureau (now Nederlandse Zuivel Organisatie) as a marketing symbol to promote Dutch cheese, particularly Gouda, in Germany. The brand recognition supported the expansion of Dutch cheese exports from around 28,000 tons in the 1950s to over 200,000 tons by the early 1990s, establishing a foundation of trust that still supports trade nowadays. As Frau Antje does not have a specific HS code, Dutch Gouda exports are used as a proxy to assess trade flows*. YTD July 2025, the Netherlands exported 241,952 tons of Gouda, valued at €1.17 billion. Intra-EU trade accounted for 81% of total volumes, remaining stable (–0.06%) but increasing 11% in value YoY. In contrast, extra-EU shipments represented 19% of the total exports and declined 8% YoY. Germany remained the main destination, accounting for 48% of total Dutch Gouda exports. With shipments of 82,260 tons YTD, valued at €475.6 million (+12% YoY). Compared with 2023, volumes were 1% lower, indicating a stable yet non-expansive market. Other relevant intra-EU destinations included Belgium (12%), Spain (10%), Greece (8%), France (6%), and Sweden (5%). Dutch Gouda exports illustrate a steady regional orientation, with intra-EU markets remaining central to trade flows. Germany continues to act as the structural anchor for both Gouda and Frau Antje, supporting stable volumes despite weaker performance in extra-EU destinations. Discussion and ConclusionsOverall, the recent easing of Frau Antje prices mirrors the broader trend across the cheese sector, particularly in Gouda and Edam. The narrowing premium over Gouda stems from the ample availability of foil cheese in the market, which has compressed price differentials across segments. In the short term, prices softened due to variations in milk production, while long-term dynamics are shaped by structural factors such as milk allocation to cheese manufacturing and stable demand.From a supply perspective, Dutch milk and cheese production remained stable, with a slight decline in cheese output and modest milk growth in recent months. However, structural limits persist: the EU Agricultural Outlook 2024–2035 projects milk output to decline by an average of 0.2% per year, even as the share directed to cheese manufacturing rises from 44% in 2024 to 46% by 2035. This reallocation underscores cheese’s growing strategic role within the EU. In this context, the Dutch sector rests on a stable yet mature foundation. Frau Antje’s reliance on Dutch milk ensures quality and traceability, though it also makes its supply sensitive to domestic production trends.On the demand side, Germany remains Frau Antje’s core market, absorbing nearly half of Dutch Gouda exports and anchoring the brand’s performance. Despite subdued intra-EU demand, shipments to Germany rose slightly, with export values up 12%, underscoring the market’s resilience. Frau Antje’s strong retail presence and recurring promotional activities continue to reinforce consumer recognition and support stable volumes.Beyond Germany, Dutch Gouda also circulates actively within the EU, particularly toward Belgium, Spain, Greece, and France. While these flows cannot be directly attributed to Frau Antje, they indicate steady regional trade dynamics and a broad base of market activity. Overall, demand for Frau Antje remains stable and regionally concentrated, reflecting both the maturity of its core markets and limited scope for short-term expansion. In summary, the Frau Antje market reflects a phase of limited supply expansion and steady demand concentrated in core EU destinations. The narrowing premium over standard Gouda highlights intensifying competition within the foil cheese segment. Although short-term prices may face downward pressure amid abundant milk supplies, the broader structural outlook remains stable, supported by the growing share of milk directed toward cheese production. Footnotes * HS Code 04069078: Gouda, of a fat content by weight of 47% but <= 72% (excl. grated or powdered and for processing). Additional Sources: ZuivelNL and European Commission.