Russia wants to double grain export quota

The Kremlin may possibly nearly double the grain export quota to 20 million tonnes. In addition to wheat, maize and barley would also fall under the quota according to the draft document. In the US, trade is still under the influence of China. From Beijing came confirmation yesterday that the import tariffs on American agricultural products are being reduced. The December contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €0.50 lower at €194.25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed up 4½ cents to $5.54¾ per bushel. Maize also made a small increase of 3¾ cents to $4.35¼ per bushel. However, the biggest gainer on the CBoT in the last trading session was soybeans. Soybeans closed 11½ cents higher at $11.19¾ per bushel. The Russian government is considering introducing a grain export quota of 20 million tonnes for the second half of the sales season (specifically from February 15 to June 30). This is according to Reuters from a draft document prepared by the Russian Grain Union. Last season, there was an export quota for wheat of 10.6 million tonnes. The Kremlin is now considering including maize and barley under the export quota as well. According to the forecast from the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, Russia has up to 50 million tonnes of grain to export this season. This is about 38% of the total Russian grain harvest. According to the ministry, wheat is by far the most important grain type of the total export with 44 million tonnes. The consideration to expand the export played a role in the moderate mood on the Matif according to some analysts. China moves In Chicago, confidence in the improved trade relationship between China and the US is increasing. Beijing confirmed that the tariff on agricultural products from the US is being reduced. Nevertheless, an import tariff of 13% on US soybeans still applies. Together with the soybean rally last week on the CBoT, this makes American soybeans relatively expensive according to various experts. That China has secured significant volumes of soybeans in Brazil for delivery in the coming months has not affected the market much, some analysts state. That China purchased wheat in the US for the first time since October 2024 can partly explain the optimism. All in all, China reportedly bought about 500,000 tonnes of soft red wheat in the US. Argentina has approved an investment of $277 million for a new port terminal on the Paraná River in the province of Santa Fe. The Paraná is an important logistical artery for getting grains and soybeans from the cultivation areas to the rest of the world. During the harvest, when supply is high, the handling in the seaports gets congested. Traders and farmers consequently miss out on sales. With the new terminal featuring additional storage and faster loading machines, Argentina aims to tackle this bottleneck. Changeable weather In Australia, the weather is not cooperating much for the grain harvest. For the next two weeks, relatively cool and changeable weather is forecasted, especially for the southeast of the country. As a result, the winter wheat harvest may experience delays according to several local sources. Rain in a crop that is nearly ripe is not ideal for quality either.