Cocoa market recovers slightly after sharp decline

After the significant decline of recent weeks, the cocoa price has recently risen slightly again. A stronger demand from the United States is the basis for this increase. Meanwhile, cocoa grinding is still low in the rest of the world. Since the recent low point on Tuesday the 28th, the cocoa price has risen by 9.9% in both London and New York. This brings the price in New York to $6600 per ton. Meanwhile, the price in London reached the equivalent of $6,228 per ton. In general, cocoa prices have dropped significantly this autumn. This is due to improved harvest expectations for next year. This situation remains unchanged for now. Once again, the news from West Africa is predominantly positive. The global chocolate giant Mondelez reported in a recent report that the number of cocoa fruits was 7% higher than the five-year average. This is a welcome development after two extremely weak years. Exports from the main producing country, Ivory Coast, were 24% lower in the last marketing year than a year earlier. Higher American demand The recent increase in the cocoa market is, however, the result of a significantly tighter market. Partly due to the high demand associated with Halloween, stocks fell to the lowest point in seven months. A total of 1,837,670 bags of cocoa were still stored. Although Halloween is a clearly identifiable reason for the extra demand, it does not seem that demand will drop sharply in the coming period. The main reason for this lies in some seasonal patterns. The market is already looking ahead to the holidays, during which demand for cocoa for high-quality desserts typically increases. Structurally low demand Particularly in the United States, there is some recovery. This was already visible earlier: in the third quarter of 2025, the amount of cocoa ground there increased by 3.2% compared to the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, the volume of grinding in Europe actually decreased by 4.8%. In Asia, the decline was even 17%, reaching the lowest volume in nine years. The weak demand is also reflected in recent figures from cocoa giant Mondelez. Declining consumption resulted in a reduction in the group's sales volume by 6.8%, entirely in line with expectations. Within the divisions, the volume in Global Chocolate decreased by 5.3%, while Global Cocoa showed a decline of 12.8%. The lower demand ultimately resulted in a drop in net profit by 35.9%.