After soy, now wheat in the sights of China

It was mainly soy that dominated the news in recent days. However, there was a change in the last trading session. According to Bloomberg, China would be in the market for wheat. Wheat saw a significant rise due to the news on the CBoT. This presents a risk for American exporters, warn various analysts. The December contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €0.75 higher at €193.75 per ton. On the CBoT, wheat saw a stronger increase with a gain of 9.5 cents to $5.43.5 per bushel. Corn also recorded a slight increase, but here the rise was limited to 2.75 cents to $4.34.25 per bushel. The biggest gainer on the Chicago exchange was soy with a rise of 20 cents to $11.19.75 cents. This time, it is not soy that is in the spotlight following the discussions between US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi, but wheat. News agency Bloomberg reported that China wants to buy American wheat. According to Bloomberg, this would involve between 200,000 and 400,000 tons. This news did not fail to impact the Chicago exchange. Whether the rally is entirely justified is questioned by some experts. Generally, China has already secured the intended volume before rumors emerge. The increase has a high 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' content. This is a (risky) strategy to enter the market when a rumor emerges and exit when the facts come out. Competition is lurkingLast weekend, the Trump administration released a factsheet summarizing the outcomes of the preliminary deal between China and the US following last week's summit. According to some analysts, it has received little attention that China has purchased ten shipments of soy from Brazil for delivery in December 2025, and another ten shipments for delivery next spring. Due to last week's soybean rally, American soy is now more expensive than Brazilian soy. This could dampen sentiment in the soybean market in the coming days. The rise in wheat prices in the US could, according to some experts, benefit European, Ukrainian, and Russian exporters. American wheat has been very competitively priced on the world market. Now that the price has risen sharply and the market in Europe and the Black Sea region is not following this trend, our wheat becomes more attractive to buyers in the world market. SovEcon increased the forecast for Russian grain exports by 400,000 tons to 43.8 million tons.