‘Farmers need to buy land and larger tractors’

The volatility of the cryptocurrency is still manageable when you see what is happening with soy, you could say with a wink. China is once again fully entering the market for American agricultural products according to Donald Trump. Better order a new tractor, is Trump's advice to the farmers in his country. In Russia, snow is throwing a wrench in the works for the last piece of the grain harvest. The December contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €0.75 lower at €191.25 per bushel. At the CBoT, wheat experienced a decline after the rise earlier this week. Wheat closed 8 cents lower at $5.24¼ per bushel. Corn also took a step back, down 3¾ cents to $4.30¼ per bushel. Soy jumped in every direction during the last trading session. There was a difference of 44 cents between the highest and lowest intraday price. There are plenty of days when the range stays under 10 cents. Soy ultimately closed 11 cents higher at $10.91¼ per bushel. That it is, to put it mildly, somewhat restless in the soy market has everything to do with the meeting between Trump and Xi last Thursday. With the bravado we have come to expect from Trump, he rated the conversation with Xi a 12 on a scale of 0 to 10. On his social media platform Truth Social, Trump wrote that he has Xi's assurance that China will buy large quantities of soybeans, sorghum, and other agricultural products. That is good news for American farmers, according to Trump. Farmers should immediately buy more land and bigger tractors, Trump continues in his message. Trump is not very concrete about what exactly has been agreed upon. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later provided hard numbers. For the 2025/26 season, China has pledged to buy 12 million tons of soybeans. The 12 million tons must be fulfilled by January at the latest, according to Bessent. Over the next three years, China will take at least 25 million tons of soy from the U.S. Initially, the market reacted with excitement, but that euphoria quickly faded. During Trump's previous term, China also made promises about importing agricultural goods from the U.S. Those agreements were not honored at that time. Seeing is believing, is the gist of the story from various analysts. The doubts about the demand from China are particularly evident in the grains. There is no mention of demand from China for either wheat or corn. Reuters reports based on anonymous sources that China is said to have purchased 250,000 tons of soy for delivery this year and early 2026. This report, like the rumor earlier this week about the purchase of 180,000 tons, has not been confirmed through official channels. Low export pace Ukraine A moderate demand for grain is also a problem for Ukraine. Grain exports are 36.7% behind last season, as shown by figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. As of October 29, Ukraine has exported 6.2 million tons of wheat, 20% less than in the same period last season. Barley exports are 1 million tons behind, at 37%, and corn exports are even down 1.6 million tons, or 65%. With the planting of winter crops, farmers in Ukraine are lagging behind last season. In total, 5.35 million hectares have been sown compared to 5.7 million hectares last year at this time. Ukrainian growers have sown 3.86 million hectares of winter wheat so far this season compared to 4.1 million hectares at this time last year. 82% of the planned area for winter crops is in the ground. Snow Russia has harvested 137 million tons of gross grains and legumes this season, Russian Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut told the Duma, the Russian parliament. The net yield for this season remains unchanged at 135 million tons. About 6% of the area still needs to be harvested. In Siberia, the weather is not cooperating. Due to early snow, some of the wheat may possibly not be harvested. According to the minister, corn is also still in the ground, but it has not been directly lost due to the snow according to Lut. The European Commission has raised the yield forecast for grains in the 2025/26 season by 1.5 million tons compared to the previous September forecast. The estimate for wheat has been increased by 1.2 million tons to 133.4 million tons. The barley harvest is revised upwards by 200,000 tons to 55.9 million tons. The Commission has kept the expected yield for corn unchanged at 56.8 million tons.