What we know so far about 2026 potato contracts

Harvest 2025 has just passed the boards, and potato growers are already busy with the next season. Especially, there is a lot of speculation about the potato contract prices for the 2026 harvest year. However, they may not play the leading role next year. For four consecutive years, farmers could count on a rising contract price. That was necessary to keep up with the increasing cost prices. The potato processors have more than compensated for this with their fixed-price contracts. The cost price rose by 14% to 20% in four years. The contract prices for Fontane and Innovator (delivery in April) increased by an average of 85% and 76% during the same period. Unprecedented reduction? The major potato processors are not yet revealing any statements about prices. Earlier this fall, insiders mentioned that a price reduction of 10% to 15% is expected for 2026. This amounts to 3 to 4 cents. Such a decline is significant compared to the last ten years. In 2018 and 2021, prices also went down, but the damage was usually limited to an average of 1 à 1.5 cents. Several companies intend to start contracting earlier. Normally, Belgian companies kickoff just before Christmas, followed by the Dutch at the start of the new year. Moreover, such a price decline is considerably lower than what is currently observed for the end product fries. In June, the average Belgian fries price was €1,169 per ton, while the Dutch price was €1,306 per ton. Reportedly, a significant reduction occurred in October, bringing the fries price down to €680 to €700. Clarity through early contracting The reason for the earlier contracting period, towards November, is the philosophy that growers can be provided with clarity about the buyer's needs for the coming year. This hopefully prevents a situation like in the spring of 2025 when, after planting had already begun, volumes were still cut back. An undesirable situation for everyone in the chain, which has received attention in Belgium, where a judicial investigation is being conducted regarding the actions of certain buyers this spring. The idea is that if a proposal is made in November, lease and rental contracts have not yet been signed. Buyers indicate they will critically review the grower agreements for the 2026 growing season. One of the determining factors for the contract is the location of the grower concerning his or her buyer. In the last two seasons, distance played a subordinate role, and potato security was more prominent. Meanwhile, buyers have quite a bit of choice, and a selection is being made. This is already visible in the current season, where contracts are known to have been bought out to avoid transport costs. Good relationship between grower and processor A good relationship between the grower and processor has always been important, but the quality delivered and other factors are now also coming into play. What type of potatoes have been delivered in recent years, was there additional work due to soil and stones? Does the grower have the ability to store and transport dry? These are weighing factors in the contract for the coming year. Friends and foes agree that the current consumption potato area in the EU-4 does not match the industry's needs and thereby the sales of the end product. The increase of 60,000 hectares this year has simply been undesirable. Whether cutting down on the grower population and a price reduction is enough to reduce the potato area remains to be seen. Growers also admit this. They have hardly any alternatives to achieve a positive balance. Cost price may not increase further A small advantage for the grower is that his cost price in 2026 may not rise much further than the already very high level. The collective labor agreement wages are rising again, but less steeply than in 2025. Especially, the minimum youth wage is increasing. Costs for cultivation mostly remain the same, although this is also determined by a dry or wet season (i.e., more crop protection and/or irrigation). The processors are currently busy negotiating with seed potato trading companies about supplies for next year. It is known that, after the perceived shortage in 2024, not every trading house is working with multi-year agreements anymore. This currently gives factories the freedom to negotiate strongly. For the grower, this could slightly compensate for the contract price reduction at the bottom line when less expensive seed potatoes need to be purchased. Excessive coverage at factories Factories are dealing with an 'overcoverage' in their contract positions. In the Netherlands, this has fluctuated around 80% for years, although there is sometimes some discussion about what exactly falls under coverage. In simple terms, it comes down to a potato processor looking at the fries volume it has sold in advance or thinks it will sell, and thus composing its purchasing policy. Now that fries sales, particularly in the Netherlands and Belgium, are disappointing, the coverage ratio inadvertently rises. This is clearly reflected in the potato market, where there is zero interest in free potatoes. In Belgium, this situation is slightly different because Belgian companies work with ton contracts and not with hectare contracts, as is customary in the Netherlands. Nevertheless, the situation there is not fundamentally different, and more 'excess tons' have also been produced by growers. The contracted potatoes have been secured at historically high prices. In a market where a significant devaluation has occurred, this is quite painful. A possible scenario for 2026 is to reduce the coverage ratio, thereby shifting the price risk more towards the grower. Not every buyer is up for this, they indicate. The contractual coverage has been approximately the same for years and has scarcely been modified so far.