Figures confirm harvest of unprecedented size

With the steady influx of more yield figures for potatoes, a clear picture of the harvest volume in the EU-4 and Poland can be formed. The growing season has not gone perfectly everywhere, but little can be perceived from that in the numbers. The increased area results in a potato volume that has never been achieved before.Updated 14-10 13:50 CET with new figures of France Belgium, Germany, France, and Poland have all recently announced new figures regarding the potato harvest in their countries. Only from the Netherlands are recent figures missing. Those will not be released by the CBS until the end of this month. Our country is perhaps the hardest to quantify in numbers. In Central and Northern Netherlands, the yields have been average to good, but this is compensated by fewer kilos in the provinces of Zeeland, North Brabant, and Limburg. 2 million tons extra With the current figures, a consumption potato yield of 26.78 million tons is being achieved in the EU-4. This is an increase of 9.4% compared to last year (+2,3 million tons) and thus the largest volume ever. 2024 already set a record, but 2025 is expected to surpass that significantly. This is mainly due to the increased area of 60,000 hectares (+11%). In 2017, it was primarily the excellent yield per hectare that led to an enormous harvest. It is a long-term trend that yields are under pressure. Looking at all segments (consumption, seed potatoes, and starch), the total yield amounts to 35.15 million tons in the EU-4. This is also a record, just like last year, and an increase of 8.23%. Polish yield rebounds Poland also has a larger potato harvest this year, as announced by the Polish statistics office GUS. They expect 6.8 million tons (all types) this year. Here, too, the area plays a significant role. Nearly 10% more area was added, and thus the line in Poland is bending slightly upwards again. The last time more than 7 million tons of potatoes were harvested was in 2021. The potato sector in the country continues to struggle in comparison to the last two decades. The yields are also very variable here, which is entirely due to the erratic weather. Based on their own trial dig figures, Vivaverda and Fiwap estimate 4.96 million tons of consumption potatoes for Belgium this year. This is significantly more than the official figure from Statbel, which one could debate regarding how realistic that is. The sector organizations are as much as 1 million tons above the government estimate. Including a growing volume of seed potatoes, Belgium totals just over 5 million tons. A lot more than, for example, was harvested in 2014 and 2017. After three poor years (2020, 2021, 2022), the Belgians now have three years with increased yields again. It also holds true here that this primarily comes from area growth and not so much a top yield. Season 2025 is marked by drought, which continues to trouble farmers. Germany continues to grow The latest French figures, from the statistics office Agreste, amount to 8.54 million tons of consumption potatoes. An increase of 14% compared to last year. At the end of September, German Destatis already communicated a potato volume of 13.4 million tons, originating from 301,000 hectares of consumption, seed, and starch potatoes. No figures have yet been released for just consumption. Removing the percentage share of starch and seed potatoes from the mix, about 9.78 million tons of consumption potatoes remain. A significantly larger amount has been harvested compared to last year, which was 8.96 million tons. An increase of 820,000 tons (9.15%). Thus, the country produces substantially more potatoes than the Netherlands and Belgium combined. Incidentally, France is also nearing this level. That a total volume of 26.5 million tons of consumption potatoes is much more than what processors need requires little explanation. Even an industry operating at full capacity struggles with this volume. Unfortunately, the reality is very different, as European processors are increasingly facing difficulties. In the Netherlands, production lines are halted, or they are operating at reduced capacity. At Clarebout in Belgium, all facilities are halted due to an all-encompassing strike that has lasted for more than a week. Coordination It is guesswork as to what volume processors in the EU-4 need. Exact figures are missing. The last time production and processing were well aligned was in 2022 and 2023. A production between 21.5 and 22.5 million tons is thus desired. With good exports, perhaps a bit more, since the capacity has also been further expanded, but with 23 million tons, it will stop there. To bring the situation into balance, the area in Northwestern Europe must shrink. A drop of 10% to 20% is mentioned, although this is still very premature at this stage of the season. Nevertheless, a 'bottom' of 10% can certainly be substantiated when looking at the growth experienced this year. And that is on top of the 7% growth achieved in 2024. Although processors may currently see bleak prospects, it is questionable whether they will dare to let go of the 'purchased' area increases (by paying significantly more for contract potatoes) so easily. After all, if the dark clouds over the export markets clear up, those potatoes may also be needed just as urgently; or during a disappointing growing season. To counter the yields that are continually under pressure, there is really only one remedy: more hectares. Growers' confidence It is the growers who ultimately have the final say. There is also nothing known about the contract prices for 2026. The cost price will not be lower next year, while the contracts are certainly being set lower from the factories, or at least with a smaller portion at a fixed price. If the potato growers choose to (partially) leave out cultivation, then the necessary reduction will indeed be realized. At the same time, there are hardly any alternative crops available. What is drawn at the bottom line early next year could very well make or break season 2026/27.