What the 2017 potato season can teach us this year

The last time the potato market was in such poor shape was in 2017. A sharp increase in planted area and favourable growing conditions resulted in a bumper crop that far exceeded the needs of European processors. The same can be said of the current situation. But is it fair to compare the two seasons? Let’s look at the similarities and differences.Over the past eight years, the potato sector has changed dramatically. The EU-4 area for processing potatoes has expanded by roughly a quarter. This is directly linked to growing demand from the processing industry, which now handles much larger volumes and receives significantly higher prices for fries. The same goes for growers, whose contract prices have nearly doubled.A story to tellIf the 2017/18 season taught us anything, it’s that you need a story to shape sentiment. That was true then, and it still holds today. In the end, a late and wet spring followed by prolonged drought was what finally set the market in motion. What spring 2026 will bring remains to be seen. But exports will need to hold up—and that’s precisely where things are faltering now. Europe’s competitive position, especially against India and China, is unlikely to change in the near term. Consumption Potatoes 2017 2025 Change in % Area & yield NL 76,400 ha – 3.95 mt/ha 83,100 ha – 3.49 mt/ha +9% – −12% Area & yield BE 95,346 ha – 5.11 mt/ha 107,962 ha – 4.46 mt/ha +13% – −13% Area & yield DE 174,400 ha – 8.45 mt/ha 219,130 ha – 9.10 mt/ha +26% – +8% Area & yield FR 137,720 ha – 6.00 mt/ha 196,000 ha – 8.29 mt/ha +42% – +38% Area & yield EU-4 total 483,866 ha – 23.53 mt/ha 606,192 ha – 26.53 mt/ha +25% – +13% Growing costs sand soils (from field) €6,096 per hectare €8,503 per hectare +39% Growing costs clay soils (delivery April) €7,566 per hectare €10,438 per hectare +38% Contract price Fontane week 17 €13.70/100 kg €27.08/100 kg +98% Contract price Innovator week 17 €14.76/100 kg €29.41/100 kg +99% Open Positions EEX on 1 September 4,838 (120,950 tons) 210 (5,250 tons) −96% Ahead of a very wet edition of Potato Europe in 2017, the launch of a national potato quotation was officially announced: PotatoNL. On 14 November, the first price was set at €4 per 100 kilograms for category 1 potatoes. That level would not be surpassed until the end of March 2018, with a low point of €3.50 in both December and February. It took until late July before prices started to move significantly, closing the 2017 crop year at €14.50. A smaller planted area, a wet spring that damaged soil structure, and persistent drought were the main reasons behind this shift.A predictive patternThe performance of the potato futures market is remarkable when comparing both years. Although the number of open positions has dropped by nearly 100%, the April contract’s closing price has been almost identical over the same period in both years. This summer, the contract for 2026 even traded higher, but by late July it had fallen below the 2017 level. The two lines have since intertwined, with the current contract now performing slightly better.Eight years ago, the low point was reached in week 50, closing at €4.20 per 100 kg. That year, prices never rose above €6.20. Only in the following summer months did the market rally, once it became clear that the new harvest had suffered major damage.Despite the sharp decline in open interest, the 2017 crop-year chart may still have predictive value for the current season - though its relevance as a market instrument has diminished significantly. This is especially problematic for pool schemes, which lose an important tool for hedging.French fries exportsIt’s not just the larger acreage and higher yields that weigh on market sentiment. The real issue is the decline in fries exports. In the first half of the year, Dutch exports to non-EU countries were 6% lower, according to official trade data. Belgium has been hit harder, with a 17% decline in exports outside Europe over the same period. Compared with 2017, overall export volumes remain well above those historical levels, although Belgium’s trend is now clearly reversing. While in March and April Belgian exports were still about 50,000 tons higher than eight years ago, by June that lead had narrowed to just 12,000 tons.The Dutch export picture looks quite different. While Belgium still managed to grow volumes by 25–30%, the Netherlands fell behind 2017 levels in five of the six months, ranging from - 8% to - 19%. Only in April did exports exceed those of 2017 by about 11,000 tons. This discrepancy has a clear explanation: Belgian processors - along with Aviko’s Poperinge plant - have significantly expanded capacity in recent years, while the Dutch processing sector has grown much more modestly.France doubles its exportsFor real growth numbers, one must look to France. In 2025, French exports during the first half of the year were more than double those of 2017, though June saw some softening. April volumes were also relatively lower, yet still strong in absolute terms.Without context, the current market malaise seems puzzling. But looking at how the fries market and processing landscape have evolved over eight years, the picture becomes clearer. Since 2017, Belgian processing capacity has expanded by 1.28 million tons, a 27.5% increase. In contrast, Dutch exports have fallen by 4.3% (−172,400 tons) - a surprising trend, given that capacity has also grown in the Netherlands.The European potato processing sector might best be compared to an elite athlete - capable of extraordinary performance at peak form, yet highly sensitive to setbacks. When fries demand falters, the impact on performance is immediate.Fries prices significantly higherThe drop in demand is almost entirely driven by the high prices of European products, which stem directly from increased production and processing costs, including labour and energy. At the 2017 low point (July), Belgian processors sold fries for an average of €630, while Dutch companies achieved €785. By June 2025, those figures had climbed to €1,169 in Belgium and €1,306 in the Netherlands - an increase of 85.5% and 66.3%, respectively.Interestingly, the price increase for fries has been smaller than that for raw potatoes. While free-market prices are currently extremely low, contract prices have nearly doubled for Fontane and Innovator varieties across all delivery periods. Contract prices have risen faster than production costs. This year, VTA estimates the cost of growing potatoes on clay soil (April delivery) at €10,438 per hectare, up 38%. In 2017, a grower producing 40 tons of Fontane under contract would have earned a gross return of €5,480, compared with €10,832 today. While cultivation was deeply unprofitable then, it now just about breaks even.This also shows how crucial bonus payments for surplus tons have become - currently around €15 per ton - to generate any real margin above contract prices.Lower contract levels aheadAfter the large 2017 harvest, contract prices for 2018 were reduced across all varieties and delivery periods - by 10% for early (upland) deliveries and 5 - 6% for storage deliveries (April). Belgian and Dutch acreages stayed roughly stable, while Germany and France saw modest increases. At that time, wheat prices were also very low, hitting €155 per ton in early 2018.Today, there is broad agreement that contract prices for 2026 will fall again. Exact figures will become clear in the coming months. Whether the planted area will shrink significantly remains uncertain. Alternative crops offer limited profitability, and land is available. Some industry steering is expected - perhaps through lower contracted yields per hectare. The next move lies with the processors. To restore market health, fries export recovery is essential - so that Europe’s “elite athlete” can once again deliver a world-class performance.