Australian beef exports are again heading for a record

The Australian beef exports are again heading for an export record in 2025. The country is still benefiting from weaker exports from the United States. This situation is the result of a combination of low domestic production and declining US exports, caused by the trade war declared by the country. In the half-yearly Cattle Industry Projections update of September, the Australian interest group for the cattle and meat sector, Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), predicts that Australian beef exports will grow to 1.5 million tons in the calendar year 2025. Australia is benefiting from the global shortage in supply, which is caused by declining production in the main production regions. A high slaughter figure underlies the expected record result. The MLA expects that the number of slaughterings will increase by 8.6% this year to 9.02 million cattle. This increase is driven by a plentiful cattle supply and a slight expansion of processing capacity. Results remain exceptionalThe Australian export of beef and veal amounted to 139,012 tons in September, an increase of 3,400 tons (2.5%) compared to August. Thus, the export was nearly 25,000 tons (22%) higher than in the same month a year earlier. Over the first nine months of the year, the total export volume reached 1.127 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons (16.5%) compared to the same period last year. However, the exports remained below the record level of July, when trade peaked at just over 150,000 tons. There is a risk that the recent success may cloud the outlook: exports remain historically strong. Last October, Australian beef exports never exceeded the threshold of 130,000 tons, but that threshold has now been surpassed for five consecutive months. The strong export to the United States, which has been ongoing for nearly two years, continued in September. The exports amounted to 42,918 tons, an increase of 5.3% compared to August and 5,700 tons (15%) more than in the same month last year. Over the first nine months of the calendar year, Australian beef exports to the US totaled 328,793 tons, an increase of 56,600 tons (21%) compared to the same period a year earlier. Notably, more quality meat is finding its way to the United States. While last year, mostly scraps were exported, the export of premium cuts from grain-fed cattle has clearly increased in recent months. US export destinations also in demandIn addition, Australia is benefiting from lower export volumes from the United States in markets where both countries traditionally compete for market share. Japan was in September the second largest importer of Australian beef. The country imported 22,759 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons (17%) compared to the previous month and even 33% more than a year earlier. This growth is associated with declining exports from the United States. Over the first nine months of this year, exports to Japan totaled 182,986 tons, still about 14,000 tons less than in the same period last year. South Korea followed as the third buyer with 21,247 tons of chilled and frozen beef from Australia, slightly less than the previous month but more than 5,400 tons (34%) more than in September 2024. Over the first nine months of this year, exports to South Korea amounted to 165,138 tons, an increase of 15% compared to the same period last year. Finally, China is benefiting significantly from the near standstill of US beef exports to China after export licenses from nearly all US exporters have been revoked. In September, Australia exported 20,741 tons of beef to China, a decrease of 7% compared to August, but still 4,580 tons (28%) more than in the same month last year. Over the first nine months of 2025, the total export volume to China reached 203,248 tons, nearly 68,000 tons (48%) higher than in the same period a year earlier. Grainfed remains popularThe export of grain-fed beef followed the same positive trend in September and amounted to 39,888 tons, accounting for 29% of total exports. Thus, the volume was 2.5% higher than in August and 29% above the level of a year earlier.