Ukrainian growers expand wheat area

Structurally, not much has changed in the grain market, but from the growers' perspective, it feels a bit friendlier. The fact that the grains closed in the green is mainly due to statements by Trump earlier this week that are still having an effect. Although the price is only moderate, Ukrainian growers are showing more interest in winter wheat. The drought of last summer is also playing a role in this. The December contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €0.25 higher at €188 per ton. On the Chicago exchange, grains were showing stronger gains. Wheat closed 5½ cents higher at $5.14¾ per bushel, and corn gained 5¼ cents to $4.21¾ per bushel. Soybeans showed a significant increase for the second consecutive day, closing 10¾ cents higher at $10.23¾ per bushel. Wednesday's news from U.S. President Donald Trump about why China, according to him, is not buying soybeans in the U.S. had an impact in the last trading session as well. Trump's Secretary of Commerce, Scott Bessent, even added to that yesterday. It is unfortunate that the Chinese leaders have decided to use American farmers, particularly soybean growers, as hostages or pawns in the trade negotiations, said Bessent. The U.S. government promises support for American farmers (of whom the vast majority voted for Trump). On Tuesday, you will see a significant support package for the farmers. We will also work with the Farm Credit Bureau to ensure that farmers get what they need for the upcoming planting year. The low prices for soybeans and, in a certain sense, for other arable crops are not solely due to the trade disputes with China, according to Bessent. Good yields and consequently a large harvest also have an impact on the market. Conflict Not only is the relationship between China and the U.S. strained, but it is also not going well between Canada and China. After Canada imposed a tariff on Chinese electric cars last March, China responded with a 100% import tariff on a number of Canadian agricultural products. This 100% tariff will now also apply to canola oil and cake from Canada. Meanwhile, China is entering the market for canola meal in India. Over the past three weeks, China has bought about 52,000 tons of canola meal in India. That is more than four times the 13,000 tons that were imported from India in the entire year of 2024. To put it in perspective: in 2024, China imported about 2 million tons of canola meal from Canada. Despite the moderate wheat price, Ukrainian farmers are planting 9% less winter wheat. At least, that is what Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs Taras Vysotskiy expects. For the 2026 harvest year, the winter wheat area is projected to be 5.2 million hectares compared to 4.8 million tons a year earlier. According to Vysotskiy, the drought that corn and sunflowers suffered from last season is an important reason for the shift to winter wheat. Winter wheat only needs spring rainfall to grow. It can also benefit from moisture in the fall or winter, unlike corn and sunflowers.