Ukrainian growers expand wheat area

Structurally, not much has changed in the grain market, but from the perspective of the growers, it still feels a bit friendlier. The fact that the grains closed in the green is mainly due to statements made by Trump earlier this week that are still having an impact. Although the price is only moderate, Ukrainian growers are more interested in winter wheat. The drought from last summer plays a role in this as well. The December contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday at €0.25 higher at €188 per ton. On the Chicago exchange, the grains showed a stronger upward trend. Wheat closed 5½ cents higher at $5.14¾ per bushel, and corn increased by 5¼ cents to $4.21¾ per bushel. Soybeans showed a significant increase for the second consecutive day, closing 10¾ cents higher at $10.23¾ per bushel. The announcement from last Wednesday by US President Donald Trump about why he believes China is not buying soybeans in the US also continued to resonate in the trading session. Trump's Secretary of Commerce Scott Bessent even added to this yesterday. It's a shame that the Chinese leaders have decided to use American farmers, especially the soybean growers, as hostages or pawns in the trade negotiations, Bessent said. For American farmers (the vast majority of whom voted for Trump), the US government promises support. You will see a substantial support package for farmers on Tuesday. We will also collaborate with the Farm Credit Bureau to ensure that farmers get what they need for the coming growing year. According to Bessent, the low prices for soybeans and, in a certain sense, also for other crops are not only due to the trade issues with China. The good yields and thus the large harvest also have an impact on the market. Conflict Not only is the relationship strained between China and the US. The relationship between Canada and China is also not very smooth. After Canada imposed a tariff on Chinese electric cars last March, China countered with a 100% import tariff on a number of Canadian agricultural products. This 100% tariff will now also apply to canola oil and meal from Canada. Meanwhile, China is active in the canola meal market in India. In the past three weeks, China purchased approximately 52,000 tons of canola meal in India. That is more than four times the 13,000 tons imported from India in all of 2024. To put it in perspective: in 2024, China imported approximately 2 million tons of canola meal from Canada. Despite the moderate wheat price, Ukrainian farmers are only planting 9% more winter wheat. At least, this is what Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs, Taras Vysotskiy, expects. For the 2026 harvest year, the winter wheat area is expected to be 5.2 million hectares, compared to 4.8 million tons the year before. The drought that corn and sunflowers have suffered significantly from last season is, according to Vysotskiy, a major reason for the switch to winter wheat. Winter wheat only relies on spring rain to grow. It can also benefit from moisture in the fall or winter, unlike corn and sunflowers.