Competition in fries export outside the EU is well managed

The Dutch fries export outside the EU-27 is declining, but compared to Belgium, the damage so far is quite manageable. Germany is seeing the sales drop at the same rate as Belgium, while France shows a solid gain. The Dutch fries sales outside the EU-27 have decreased by just under 6% in the first seven months of this year to 542,759 tons, according to figures from the statistics agency Eurostat. In Belgium, the problems are greater. That country exported 746,208 tons, about 17% less to third countries than in the same period last year. A silver lining is that the decline has been slowing down since May; in the period from January to May, the decrease was still 21.4%. According to the figures from Eurostat, Belgium and the Netherlands have in common that the lower sales are largely due to a declining demand in the United Kingdom. Belgium is exporting nearly 16% less to the United Kingdom this year compared to 2024, according to Eurostat. In the Netherlands, this decrease is over 13%. Belgium is also experiencing a strong decline in sales to Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Australia, Chile, and the United Arab Emirates this year. Exports to Saudi Arabia have plummeted by about 40%. Exports to Brazil are also very difficult with a decrease of 32%. The Netherlands has been able to sell more to Brazil than last year (+34%). Nevertheless, Belgium remains a larger supplier there with over 45,000 tons, compared to the Netherlands with 35,000 tons in seven months. The Dutch export to Saudi Arabia also started this year positively with a 6% increase in the first half of the year, but in July, this sales figure dropped significantly. Increased competition from China and IndiaIn some markets, the Netherlands and Belgium are noticing that they face stronger competition from India and China. For instance, India has quintupled its sales to the United Arab Emirates this year to 15,000 tons. China is making an even larger leap to 8,700 tons in the first seven months. In terms of quantities, the Netherlands and Belgium are most affected by China in exports to the Philippines, Thailand, and Japan. India is also becoming more active especially in the Philippines and further in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. The fact that this competition has only limited effects on the Netherlands' exports outside the EU this year is also due to increased Dutch sales to Brazil, the US, Colombia, and also Saudi Arabia. Belgium is selling more fries this year to South Africa, Mexico, Israel, and Honduras. Despite import tariffs and adverse exchange rate effects, exports from the Netherlands to the US have increased by 20%. And Belgium has managed to limit the impact on its exports to the US to a decrease of 3.5% after seven months, following an initial drop. This means that both the Netherlands and Belgium are doing well in the US despite import tariffs and exchange rate effects. For the Netherlands, the decline in fries sales is mainly taking place in exports within the European Union. In the first half of this year, sales within the EU decreased by 11% to 363,000 tons. Particularly Germany, Italy, Spain, and France are buying fewer fries from the Netherlands. Exports to Germany have dropped by 17% to 81,500 tons in the first half of this year. The flow to Italy has decreased by over 40% to less than 18,000 tons. An increased sales to Poland (+16%) and a doubling of exports to Bulgaria and Serbia cannot sufficiently compensate for that. Dependence on the United KingdomOverall, Dutch exporters are managing to compensate for their sales losses in certain destinations outside the EU quite well by increasing sales in other countries. A notable point is the significant dependence on the market in the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, India and China are virtually absent in that market. Within the EU, it is more challenging to find alternative markets. The Netherlands is very dependent on exports to Germany, Belgium, and France within the European Union. This is a difficult situation considering the enormous rise of potato cultivation and processing in these competing countries.