Slight price recovery for wheat on the futures market

The futures market in Paris shows a slight price recovery for wheat after a lower start in the first half of this week. There is not much change in the market, but there is talk of slightly more buying interest from importing countries. The December contract for wheat on the Matif rose on Wednesday, September 24, to just above €190 per ton, whereas prices had fallen below that level at the beginning of this week. The March contract increased to €197 per ton, returning to the level of late last week. This morning, trading stabilized at this level. In Chicago, we see the same picture. Prices have also recovered there after the dip on the first trading day of the week. That recovery could not be continued on Wednesday. By the end of the day, there was a small decrease of 1 cent to 519.5 cents per bushel. Thus, the price is still 5 cents below the level of late last week. According to traders, Algeria has bought around 500,000 tons of wheat through a tender at about $260 per ton C&F (cost and freight included). The expectation is that this tender is mostly filled with wheat from countries around the Black Sea. A few other countries have also issued a tender for wheat. Rising yields in Russia Harvest forecasts in Russia are being raised further. The Russian market research agency Ikar has adjusted the forecast for the 2025 harvest to 87.5 million tons. This harvest expectation is in line with the 87.2 million tons predicted by market agency SovEcon. Despite the larger harvest quantities in these forecasts, the Russian government feels compelled to further raise export duties. For this week until the end of this month, the duty is now converted to €67 per ton. That is €17 per ton more than the duty that was in effect until last Wednesday. Additionally, there are reports from Russia that the sowing of winter wheat is being hindered. Drought is delaying the sowing of winter wheat, but rising diesel costs are also starting to become a problem. With rising fertilizer prices on the horizon, this leads to an increasing cost price.