Cocoa price drops due to better harvest expectations

The price of cocoa has clearly decreased in recent weeks. In particular, positive harvest expectations in West Africa are putting pressure on the price, but an increasing production in Ecuador also eases the supply. This week, the cocoa price fell sharply. In the past two weeks, the quotation on ICE New York dropped by 5.4% to $6,992. On ICE London, there was a decrease of 4.5% to the equivalent of $6,602. The price difference between both markets thus reduced from 6.5% to 5.6%. The main reason for the lower prices is a positive harvest outlook in the producing country Ivory Coast. In recent weeks, the weather has been very favorable, which increases the likelihood of a good harvest. The effects are almost immediately noticeable. Growers report that the cocoa pods are developing well. Although a strong harvest is not yet certain, a positive scenario is becoming increasingly likely. Investments from the Ivorian government are also beginning to bear fruit. For instance, the government provides financial support, invests in infrastructure, and offers training to farmers. Thanks to education and financial support, growers have adopted techniques that improve the harvest. There has also been investment in better fertilizers and crop protection, which benefits both the yield and the quality. Production in Ecuador is growing rapidly A growing supply in South America further eases the market. Especially in Ecuador, the growth expectations are strong. In the season 2026/27, the country is expected to surpass Ghana as the second-largest producer, according to the national export organization. For that year, an export volume of 650,000 tons is anticipated, an increase of 38% compared to 2024, when the country exported 471,000 tons. For Ghana, production for the season 2025/26 is estimated at 600,000 tons. A major reason for the strong growth is that growers in Ecuador are paid relatively well. On average, farmers receive about 90% of the world market price, while growers in Ivory Coast and Ghana receive only 60% to 70%. For this year, a growth of 21% is already expected, reaching 570,000 tons. By the end of the year, according to the interest group of cocoa exporters, production could even rise to 800,000 tons.