Wheat remains stored at these prices

The current wheat price is not covering costs for most growers. Now that most wheat is in storage, growers have little incentive to sell it. According to analysts, this could lead to a slightly different dynamic in the market. However, more is needed for a real turnaround. The December contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €1.75 lower at €189 per ton. At the CBoT, wheat took a harder hit and closed down 11¾ cents at $5.10¾ per bushel. Corn also closed lower on the Chicago exchange, but here the loss was limited to 2¼ cents at $4.21¾ per bushel. Soybeans dropped 14½ cents to $10.11 per bushel. Contrary to what the Chicago market suggests, U.S. wheat exports are booming. In the week ending September 18, it involved 855,000 tons of wheat, according to the latest U.S. export figures. This is well above the trade estimate, which anticipated exports of 300,000 to 500,000 tons. In total, the U.S. has exported 8.7 million tons of wheat so far this season. That is 13% more than during the same period last year. That 8.7 million tons is 36% of the total export forecast for the entire season by the USDA. Historically, around this time, 33% of the expected seasonal exports have been completed. Good harvests and a large stock of wheat hanging over the market mean, according to various analysts, that the mood in the wheat market remains moderate. Meanwhile, both in the U.S. and Europe, prices have fallen to a level where growers earn nothing or even need to spend more money. This could lead some analysts to suggest that farmers keep their silos or storage closed and only sell what is absolutely necessary to pay the bills. This could more or less create a bottom in the market. The price of wheat in Russia has risen slightly this week. The Ikar quotation for Russian wheat for export increased by $3 to $228 per ton FOB (delivered on the ship). SovEcon expects that Russia will export 4.2 million tons of wheat in September. Dry in the east In Europe, the JRC, the scientific bureau of the European Commission, has published the September edition of the Mars Bulletin. Especially in the south and east of Europe, there are still problems with drought. Many potato growers in the south of the Netherlands or Belgium may not completely relate to this, but only a piece of France and southern Germany, along with southeastern Europe, are marked as 'areas of concern' in the Mars Bulletin. The USDA released the weekly update of the Crop Progress report yesterday. The summer wheat harvest is almost complete with 95% harvested. Barley and oats are off and will not be reported this week. U.S. farmers are not in a hurry to plant winter wheat yet. 20% of the planned area is in the ground compared to 23% last year at this time and according to the five-year average. Corn harvest is on schedule Most attention is focused on corn, of course, in the U.S. 11% of the corn has been harvested. This is equal to the five-year average, but last year at this time, 13% had already been harvested. The relatively dry conditions are not causing the harvest to proceed much faster. The condition of the corn has slightly declined. 66% of the acreage is rated good or excellent compared to 67% last week. Combines are also operating in soybeans. 9% of the acreage has been harvested, which is equal to the five-year average. However, just like with corn, the harvest is lagging behind last season when 12% had been harvested. 61% of the soybeans in the U.S. receive a good or excellent rating from the USDA, down from 63% last week.