French wheat stock largest in 21 years

France raised its wheat export forecast. After a generally favorable harvest in France, this is not enough to significantly impact the stock level. Although the stock has been slightly reduced compared to the previous estimate, France still ends up with the largest stock in 21 years. In the US, there is still a lot of discussion regarding biofuels. Agricultural organizations and representatives from the oil industry are at odds with each other. The December wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €1 higher at €192.25 per ton. On the CBoT, wheat closed the last trading session in the red with a loss of 5¾ cents to $5.28¼ per bushel. Corn also took a step back, losing 2¾ cents to $4.26¾ per bushel. Soybeans saw the biggest drop in absolute numbers with a loss of 6 cents to $10.43¾ per bushel. Wheat on the futures market in Paris did show a modest increase yesterday, but the news from France was not really bullish. FranceAgriMer released a new export and stock forecast yesterday. The positive news is that the French government agency has slightly raised the export forecast. FranceAgriMer expects that 7.85 million tons of French wheat will be exported to destinations outside the EU this season. In the previous estimate from July, that was 7.5 million tons. Thus, exports to countries outside the EU in 2025/26 will be nearly 125% larger than the previous season. In 2024/25, the smallest volume of wheat this century was exported. The export of French wheat within the EU has remained virtually unchanged from the previous estimate at 6.74 million tons. This makes the export within the EU 1% lower than last season. The ending stock of wheat has been reduced by FranceAgriMer by 230,000 tons to 3.64 million tons. While this sounds like good news, it is emphasized from various sides that this is still the largest wheat stock since 2004/05. Higher levyRussia has increased the export levy on wheat by almost 300% to 495.9 rubles per ton, as announced by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture yesterday. Consequently, the levy now amounts to approximately €5 per ton. After five weeks without an export tax, a contribution on corn is now also being implemented again. This has been set at 398.2 rubles per ton (about €4 per ton). The levy on barley remains at 0%. Stats Canada has released new figures on the wheat harvest in the country. The statistics agency now estimates the total wheat harvest in Canada at 36.62 million tons. That is 1.1 million tons more than in the previous forecast. Stats Canada thus follows the USDA's lead, which increased the Canadian harvest by 1 million tons to 36 million tons last week. BioethanolIn the US, there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the mandatory blending of biofuels in gasoline and diesel. Smaller refineries can receive an exemption if they can demonstrate that this blending obligation financially affects them disproportionately. Larger refineries would then have to take over these obligations for compensation through a certificate system. However, the oil industry wants a discount on the amount of biofuel. The US environmental agency EPA still has to come to a conclusion on this, which will likely happen in October. Regardless of the outcome, analysts expect that the oil industry will take the decision to court. As a result, the uncertainty is likely to continue for months. Especially corn growers and traders are keeping a close eye on this. Should a discount on bioethanol be implemented, it would directly have significant consequences for the demand for corn. With a large harvest on the horizon and a struggling export, which is already putting pressure on the corn price, this is a hurdle that growers cannot afford.