Brazil the laughing third in Trump's trade war

In Europe, grain exports may be struggling a bit, but they are not experiencing any issues in the US. Helped by, among other things, a weak dollar, wheat exports in the US are ahead of schedule. Due to China's demand, Brazilian soybean exporters are doing good business. APK-Inform has revised its forecast for the grain harvest in Ukraine upwards. Uncertainty about an export levy from Ukraine is causing problems with the export of rapeseed and soybeans. The September wheat contract on the Matif closed €1.50 higher at €183.75 per ton. However, most trading is done on the December contract, which closed €0.75 lower at €189 per ton. On the CBoT, wheat closed 4½ cents higher at $5.05½ per bushel. Corn also saw an increase of 4 cents to $4.03 per bushel. Soybeans, like the grains, were in the green in the last trading session, closing 7 cents higher at $10.13½ per bushel. The Ukrainian market bureau APK-Inform has published a new harvest estimate for the grain harvest in Ukraine. Compared to the previous estimate a month ago, the yield is now estimated to be nearly 11% higher at 58.8 million tons. More than half of the grain harvest is corn, namely 30.3 million tons. The other major crop in Ukraine is wheat, which APK estimates to be 21.9 million tons. The amount of grain expected to be exported has also been revised upwards by the bureau. Instead of 40 million tons a month ago, APK-Inform now expects that 41.9 million tons will be exported. This includes 15.3 million tons of wheat, 23.8 million tons of corn, and 2.3 million tons of barley. Export levy With the export of rapeseed and soybeans, things are not going smoothly in Ukraine. The Ukrainian government has imposed an export levy of 10% on these oilseeds, but due to uncertainties regarding procedures and the necessary documents, exports have completely stalled since September 5, according to the Ukrainian Grain Traders Union (UAC). With a levy of 10%, it is possible to export, but ships are waiting in the ports because the loads contain a mix of products from both producers and traders, said the UAC in a statement. Exports are not subject to import duties if the producer sells their own rapeseed and soybeans. The problem lies in the lack of a clear procedure for documenting the origin of products grown by agricultural producers or cooperatives themselves, the union stated. Ukraine is a major European producer of rapeseed and soybeans and has already harvested rapeseed, with exports being most active in the early months of autumn. Advantage from a weak currency In the US, wheat exports are doing well. Last week, 425,000 tons of wheat were exported, and in total, over 7 million tons of wheat have been exported this season. This is 10% more than during the same period last year. Already, 30% of what the USDA predicts will be exported in the 2025/26 season has been shipped. On average, 27% of the total export forecast is usually shipped by this time of year. Due to a weak dollar, American wheat is priced very attractively for international buyers, according to various analysts. The USDA also released the weekly update of the Crop Progress report yesterday. It states that corn harvesting has begun. 4% of the area has been harvested compared to 5% last year at this time and 3% in the five-year average. The condition of the corn has slightly deteriorated this week. Of the area, 68% is rated good or excellent compared to 69% last week. Soybeans are rated just slightly lower at 64% good or excellent versus 65% last week. The harvest of summer wheat and barley is nearly complete, with 85% and 87% harvested, respectively. And although the combines are still harvesting summer grains, planting of winter wheat has also begun. 5% of the planned winter wheat area is now in the ground. This is equal to last year at this time, but planting is slightly behind the five-year average, which stands at 6%. Laughing third Despite—or perhaps because of—the trade war that US President Trump is engaging in, China imported a record amount of soybeans in August. Last month, China imported 12.28 million tons of soybeans, according to Reuters based on Chinese customs data. By far the largest portion of the soybeans that China imported came from Brazil. According to preliminary estimates from Brazil's Grain Exporters Association Anec, 6.75 million tons of soybeans were shipped from Brazil to China in August. Additionally, Argentina and Uruguay are significant suppliers. A notable detail is that China has not yet purchased any soybeans from the upcoming harvest in the US.