Is the cocoa market recovering from scarcity?

Reports of a global cocoa surplus in 2024/25 have contributed to alleviating concerns about global cocoa scarcity and boosting market optimism. In turn, cocoa prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have dropped to their lowest levels since December, driven by improved supply perceptions and rising inventories. However, risks such as declining cocoa arrivals, weather challenges, and smuggling remain threats to provision, contributing to continued market volatility.