UK milk production turns negative in May

UK milk production slipped into decline in May, marking the first year-over-year contraction after several months of slowing growth. Despite the weaker monthly result, cumulative milk output remained above last year's level, while stronger fat and protein contents continued to support milk solids production. Falling farmgate milk prices combined with rising feed costs placed increasing financial pressure on dairy producers throughout the first half of the year. The pressure accelerated further severe early-summer heatwaves, which triggered heat stress and affected the decline in milk collection.Milk production in the United Kingdom (UK) downturned in May, declining by 0.2% compared to the previous year to 1.45 billion liters. Production growth had been continuously decelerating since 4% observed in January, reaching a 0.5% annual increase in April and turning into an annual decline in May.The contracting growth has partially moderated the strong growth observed in previous months, although the overall performance remains positive. Cumulative output increased by 2% over the previous year, reaching 6.81 billion liters by May.That said, milk nutrient contents increased over the previous year, despite a monthly decline. Both protein and fat contents increased by 2.1% year-over-year, reaching 3.46% and 4.27% respectively. As a result, the production of milk solids outpaced the production of liquid milk, growing by 4.2% year-over-year in May.Low milk prices couple with high feed costsThe period of milk oversupply in the UK and global markets has exerted a significant pressure of milk farmgate prices in the region. As such, milk pricing remained weak throughout the whole year, averaging 34.2 pence per liter (ppl). This represented a decline of 0.4% compared to the previous month and of 21% compared to the previous year, in line with previous months.Forage growth was under the five-year average, despite a relative increase compared to the previous year during May. June reports indicated a recovery in June, followed by a sharp decline in July. A limited growth of forage, limiting the availability of the cheapest nutritional source for cattle, exposes farmer profits when supplementary feed prices increase.The complexity of the market situation worsened as prices of several feedstuffs increased in May, observing annual increases in feed wheat (+11.7%), soybean meal (+19.2%), and Grassland hay (+122.8%). Despite the favorable forage production in May, the low farmgate milk prices compounded with high feedstuff costs, reflecting economic conditions that did not support production in the producer echelon.With the production system vulnerable, May became the turning point as weather conditions worsened. The decline in production was primarily linked to the influence of the heatwaves experienced by Northwester Europe in late June and early July. Two main heatwaves were reported in the UK, the first one in late May, peaking at 35.1 Celsius. The second heatwave emerged in late June, reaching a temperature of 37.7 Celsius in England and reaching the highest temperature ever recorded for June.The high temperatures observed throughout the heatwaves triggered heat stress in animals, severely diminishing their milk production and explaining the accelerated decline in output after May. Moreover, recent reports estimate a decline in weekly collections ranging between 2% and 4% in late June and July across Great Britain. In summary, while conditions for production were relatively not supportive of production since the beginning of the year, weather conditions were the factor that finally deteriorated milk production below the previous year’s levels.