Summer dip appears differently across meat markets

In the meat markets, seasonality plays an important role. Meat prices tend to rise considerably around the holidays and in spring. As a result, prices often fall back sharply during the quieter summer period and again in winter after the holiday season. As this market report shows, this pattern exists across all Dutch meat markets, although it appears in different ways.Meat prices tend to benefit strongly from two factors. Firstly, prices often rise sharply when the market prepares for a holiday period. Secondly, prices also tend to increase in spring, when additional demand from barbecues and foodservice comes together and pushes prices higher. After this period, prices usually slow considerably, resulting in one of the two well-known quieter periods of the year.As we will see in this market report, prices do indeed tend to follow a pattern of decline at the start of the summer, followed by a slower but still significant recovery towards the end of the summer. However, the actual strength and consistency of this pattern depends strongly on the specific market.Insight 1: Chicken market shows clear summer dipIn the chicken market, Dutch chicken prices consistently showed a summer decline between 2022 and 2025. A direct comparison with 2021 is difficult, as the methodology of the average Dutch slaughterhouse price, VCN, changed significantly.In 2022, the seasonal pattern was clearly visible. Prices fell in July before starting to rise again in mid-August. The decline had already begun in June, with prices falling by 2 cents in the first three weeks of the month. In August, however, prices started to increase again, reaching what was then a record level of €1.15 per kilo.In 2023, the pattern was even stronger, although the context was quite different. The seasonal pattern only partly explains the lower prices, as weaker demand for chicken pushed prices down even further. That year, prices started to decline early. On 30 May, the VCN price stood at €1.13 per kilo. Prices continued to fall until 15 August, when they bottomed out at €1.07 per kilo. The following week, prices rose by just 1 cent, before slipping again.One exception to this pattern was 2024, when chicken prices increased over the summer. This was an atypical situation, but it can easily be explained by a considerably tight market caused by bird flu and, even more importantly, a significant shortage of hatching eggs needed to replenish stock.In 2025, the trend returned. Despite very high prices and a very tight market, prices fell from €1.21 per kilo on 1 July to €1.19 per kilo on 5 August. In the first two weeks of September, however, prices rose again to €1.21 per kilo.Insight 2: Beef market shows considerably larger disruptionsLooking at Dutch O-quality beef prices over the past five years, the seasonal pattern is visible, although its timing and strength differ from year to year. The situation in 2021 actually shows the typical form of the pattern quite well. Prices fell from €3.18 per kilo in mid-June to €3.00 in early August, before rising again to €3.25 by late September.From 2022 unwards the patern shifted significantly as the market became significantly disrupted. In 2022, the decline was much stronger. Once again, this was the result of a major market disruption. After the start of the war in Ukraine, European beef prices climbed considerably, but the increase did not last. Prices fell from €4.95 in late April and early May to €3.95 by the end of September. That year, the usual late-summer recovery did not materialise, as the higher food prices at the time, at least in the beef market, turned out to be more of a shock effect than a structural shift.In 2023, prices also weakened through the summer, falling from €4.13 at the end of May to €3.53 by late September. Again, the post-summer upward pressure was delayed or absent, showing that seasonality was overruled by weaker market conditions. The beef market remained under pressure because of low demand, as consumers tended to deprioritise luxury food after the inflation shock.That same effect was still visible in 2024, as demand remained relatively low. At the same time, the cattle herd had been reduced significantly, which compensated for this effect. As a result, prices were unusually stable in 2024, holding around €4.00 per kilo from July through early September before edging up to €4.05 later that month.In 2025, the pattern returned more clearly. Demand was noticeably stronger that year, and prices were historically high, leading to a very pronounced version of the same pattern. Prices fell from €6.25 in early July to €5.80 in early August, before recovering to €6.05 by mid-September. Overall, the August or September recovery is not a contradiction of the seasonal pattern; it is part of it.Insight 3: Seasonal pattern was very unstable in porkIn the pork market, the seasonal pattern over the past five years has been less consistent than in some other meat markets, as shown by the DCA Pig Index. In 2021, the pattern was very clear, but there was no real late-summer recovery. Prices peaked at €1.61 per kilo in late May and early June, before falling steadily through the summer. By the end of September, the index had dropped to €1.23 per kilo.In 2022, the situation was the opposite. After a brief decline in May, prices started to rise again from June onwards. The index moved from €1.68 per kilo in May to €1.96 per kilo by mid-September. This shows that market tightness outweighed the usual summer pressure.In 2023, the seasonal pattern was more visible. Prices rose until mid-July, reaching €2.43 per kilo, but then started to decline. By the end of September, the index had fallen to €2.17 per kilo. The expected post-summer support did not really appear that year.In 2024, prices again weakened after June, falling from €2.06 per kilo to €1.85 in August and early September. Only at the end of September did prices edge slightly higher.In 2025, the market was heavily disrupted by high Chinese retaliatory tariffs after the EU decided to tax imports of Chinese electric cars aggressively. Summer pressure was very strong. Prices fell from €2.04 per kilo in mid-June to €1.62 by the end of September. Overall, the pork market shows that summer pressure is common, but the August or September recovery is not guaranteed.Insight 4: The patterns exist in all markets, but in different formsLooking at the three meat markets in relative terms, the seasonal pattern is visible, but the strength of the movement differs strongly between markets. Across the analysed periods, prices generally came under pressure during the summer, followed in some cases by renewed upward pressure from August or September onwards as the market started preparing for the post-summer period.The chicken market showed the most consistent seasonal movement, but also the smallest. On average, chicken prices declined by around 3% during the summer period. The average recovery was also limited, at around 1.3%. This confirms that the seasonal pattern is visible in chicken, but the relative price movements are modest compared with the other meat markets.The Dutch beef market showed much stronger movements. Across the analysed periods, prices declined by around 11.9% on average. The recovery phase was more visible than in pork, with prices rising by around 3.2% on average after the summer low. This is largely the result of demand peaking at the end of spring, when barbecue season and foodservice activity are both strong.The pork market showed the largest average summer decline. Across the analysed periods, prices fell by around 16.3% on average. The recovery was very limited, at only around 0.3% on average. This pattern is similar to the beef market, as the barbecue effect is also strong in pork. At the same time, the data has been heavily influenced by structural pressure on both demand and supply, which has often dominated and, as a result, weakened the usual seasonal patterns.Conclusion: The summer dip is real, but not the strongest force The historical pattern of summer price dips remains highly relevant for the Dutch meat markets. However, as the past years have shown, the pattern can change quite easily when markets are strongly disrupted.Under normal market conditions, Dutch chicken prices tend to follow the seasonal decline pattern most consistently, although the declines are relatively small. Even when the market became significantly disrupted, chicken prices still tended to lose value around the start of summer and then recover later as the market moved towards the post-summer period.For beef and pork, the seasonal pattern is also visible, but it is stronger and less consistent. Both markets benefit more from good weather, when foodservice demand is strongest and barbecues are popular. At the same time, disruptions tend to hit the beef and pork markets harder than chicken, which sometimes results in the pattern being overturned completely. This is not surprising for the beef market, as beef tends to behave more like a luxury market, while chicken and pork are generally seen more as basic commodity markets, making them less elastic.At the same time, this effect was even clearer in the pork market. Prices fluctuated strongly as a result of a chain of declines in both demand and supply. This dynamic often completely dominated the normal seasonal pattern. The timing and strength of the movement differ strongly from year to year. This is the result of the permanent disruption of the pork market. Pork is slowly but surely losing popularity in the European Union, and the decline in demand has been moving somewhat faster than the decline in supply. Because of this trend, a dynamic of sharp rises and contractions has dominated the market, largely offsetting the usual seasonal patterns.