New Zealand dairy trade weakens as milk output rises

A significant increase in New Zealand’s milk production was observed in February, the eighth month of the 2025/26 milk season. Reports observe an annual increase of 6.01%, equivalent to an additional 112 million kilo, accelerating over the 2.06% observed in January. Year-to-date (YTD) February production stands at 3.74%, or an increase of 159 million kilo.In February, most product categories experienced declines. However, Whole Milk Powder (WMP), whey, acid casein, WPI/WPC80, butter, AMF, and cream all recorded increases. Total exports in February declined by 0.70%, or 13.8 million kilo LME, compared to the same month in 2025. This follows a sharper decline of 4.80%, or 105 million kilo LME, in January. New Zealand exports in February Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% WMP 126,191 138,875 12,684 10.05% SMP 49,666 40,627 -9,039 -18.20% BMP 3,601 2,225 -1,376 -38.21% Whey 928 1,307 379 40.84% Acid casein 2,575 2,585 10 0.39% Rennet Casein 2,095 1,842 -253 -12.08% Caseinates 3,661 2,080 -1,581 -43.18% WPI/WPC > 80% 2,251 2,641 390 17.33% Lactose 3,002 2,220 -782 -26.05% Infant Formula 10,378 6,494 -3,884 -37.43% Butter 24,873 25,439 566 2.28% AMF 14,930 15,362 432 2.89% Cheese 38,180 37,763 -417 -1.09% Milk 17,968 14,002 -3,966 -22.07% Condensed 2,882 583 -2,299 -79.77% Cream 17,108 20,368 3,260 19.06% Cumulative results through February show a pattern broadly consistent with the single-month performance. Most milk powders continue to post declines. However, in contrast to the February-only figures, YTD data indicates that butter and AMF exports have decreased, while WMP, cheese, and cream have recorded gains. As of February, total export volumes on a YTD basis are down 2.28%, equivalent to a reduction of 95 million kilo LME (liquid milk equivalent). New Zealand exports in February YTD Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% WMP 274,788 280,783 5,995 2.18% SMP 103,455 88,506 -14,949 -14.45% BMP 6,849 5,034 -1,815 -26.50% Whey 2,019 2,604 585 28.97% Acid casein 6,739 5,556 -1,183 -17.55% Rennet Casein 3,943 3,787 -156 -3.96% Caseinates 6,281 4,407 -1,874 -29.84% WPI/WPC > 80% 4,146 4,852 706 17.03% Lactose 5,006 4,481 -525 -10.49% Infant Formula 17,354 12,194 -5,160 -29.73% Butter 55,911 54,772 -1,139 -2.04% AMF 31,404 30,050 -1,354 -4.31% Cheese 76,513 77,431 918 1.20% Milk 33,227 36,762 3,535 10.64% Condensed 5,348 13,821 8,473 158.43% Cream 35,067 45,112 10,045 28.65% On the import side, all product categories have increased on a YTD February basis. The most notable absolute increases are observed in whey and cheese volumes. Total New Zealand imports of the selected products rose from a decline of 1.92% in January to an increase of 10.01% by February, equivalent to an additional 15 million kilo LME. New Zealand imports in February YTD Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% Whey 0404.10 772 1,981 1,209 156.61% Cheese 0406 1,422 2,245 823 57.88% Lactose 1702.11 & 19 17,687 17,940 253 1.43% As a result, theoretical stock levels have risen significantly. Stocks increased from 1.57 billion kilo LME at the start of the year to 1.84 billion kilo LME by the end of February, representing an increase of 17.16%. This corresponds to 41.63% of New Zealand’s milk production on a YTD February 2026 basis. Stock levels are therefore relatively high, primarily driven by increased milk production and higher import volumes, combined with weaker export performance.