Grain does not follow oil market trend | DCA Market Intelligence

After the American and Israeli attack on Iran that began last Saturday, we had the first trading day on the markets yesterday. Brent oil closed over 6% higher and the European natural gas futures market even rose by 35%. In the grains market, that trend in energy was not followed. On the contrary, both in Paris and Chicago, the prices took a step back. This is somewhat remarkable as there was quite a bit of bullish news. In Europe, there is damage to the winter grains due to wetness and cold, as stated in the Mars bulletin. The March contract for wheat closed €2 lower at €195.50 per ton. On the CBoT, wheat experienced a harder hit and closed 16¾ cents lower at $5.74½ per bushel. Corn closed 5½ cents lower at $4.33¼ per bushel. Soybeans lost 7¼ cents to close at $11.50 per bushel. In the Netherlands, wheat seems to have come through the winter relatively unscathed. That is not the case everywhere in Europe. In western France, the Iberian Peninsula, and Italy, there are concerns about water damage, according to the new Mars bulletin from the JRC, the scientific office of the European Commission. In a large part of the north and west of Europe, cold is a problem. In northern Germany, Scandinavia, and the central part of Ukraine, the mercury dropped during two cold periods in the first half of February to about minus 15 degrees. Despite there being only a thin layer of snow, the JRC estimates the risk of frost damage in the winter grains to be low. This is different in the east of Poland, the Baltic states, and western Ukraine. Locally, temperatures of 25 to 30 degrees of frost were recorded. Under such conditions, frost damage is very likely despite a sufficiently thick layer of snow as observed in large parts of this region. The actual damage will, by the way, only be visible later in the season according to the JRC. Source: Mars bulletin According to the Ukrainian National Academy of Agricultural Sciences, up to 20% of the winter crops may have been lost due to the extreme cold in the country in February. Nevertheless, the scientists describe the condition of the winter grains in Ukraine as 'relatively acceptable'. Saudi Arabia has reportedly secured 800,000 tons of wheat in a tender. Prices range from $265.60 to $283 per ton C&F (cost and freight). According to sources, the wheat comes from Russia or other suppliers around the Black Sea. Conflicting reports Yesterday, two opposing reports emerged regarding the soybean harvest in Brazil. Market bureau Safras & Mercado lowered the yield forecast from 179.28 million tons to 177.72 million tons. If that yield is achieved, it would still be a record. There have been specific adjustments to yields, particularly in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, due to climate stress, writes Safras & Mercado. The market bureau expects that 105 million tons will be exported from the harvest and 60 million tons will be processed in Brazil. The Rabobank, on the other hand, increased the yield forecast for soybeans in Brazil by 2 million tons to 181 million tons. The crop conditions were assessed as good to excellent in most growing areas, which led RaboResearch to raise its production forecast, the bank writes. Rabobank expects to export 112 million tons of soybeans this season.