NZ Dairy imports strengthen amid slower exports

The fifth month of the 2025/26 milk season recorded a notable increase in milk production of 1.69%, equivalent to 525 million kilo. This follows growth of 2.50% in September. Year-to-date (YTD) October production stands 1.65% higher, representing an additional 264 million kilo. October marks the seasonal production peak and is typically followed by four more months of elevated milk output.Despite the strong rise in milk production, New Zealand’s export performance in October did not follow the same trajectory. New Zealand exports October 2025 Product Oct. '24 Oct. '25 ∆ ∆% WMP 124.189 119.914 -4.275 -3,44% SMP 36.700 32.786 -3.914 -10,66% BMP 3.438 2.900 -538 -15,65% Whey 1.276 1.305 29 2,27% Acid casein 3.072 2.052 -1.020 -33,20% Rennet Casein 771 2.161 1.390 180,29% Caseinates 1.841 2.709 868 47,15% WPI/WPC > 80% 1.977 2.010 33 1,67% Lactose 1.508 1.626 118 7,82% Infant Formula 8.202 6.459 -1.743 -21,25% Butter 21.728 23.382 1.654 7,61% AMF 12.849 12.986 137 1,07% Cheese 31.076 32.927 1.851 5,96% Milk 21.512 20.353 -1.159 -5,39% Condensed 1.897 825 -1.072 -56,51% Cream 19.461 23.206 3.745 19,24% Exports of whole milk powder (WMP), skim milk powder (SMP), and buttermilk powder (BMP) all declined. High-protein powders increased across the board, except for acid casein, which fell. Most other dairy product categories strengthened, while infant formula, liquid milk, and condensed products declined. Cheese exports were higher year-on-year, though the pace of growth has slowed from 7.02% in September to 5.96% in October. Overall, October exports ended 2.15% lower, a reduction of 37,859,980 kilo in liquid milk equivalent (LME).The cumulative picture through October closely reflects the October monthly trend. Most milk powder categories continue to register declines, whereas fat-based products show strong momentum, largely due to robust performance earlier in the year. As of October, YTD export volumes are up 0.78%, equal to 125,795,670 kilo LME. This indicates steady progress despite the ongoing weakness in several powder segments. New Zealand exports Year To Date October 2025 Product YTD Oct. '24 YTD Oct. '25 ∆ ∆% WMP 1.062.793 1.037.687 -25.106 -2,36% SMP 346.630 321.789 -24.841 -7,17% BMP 34.055 26.203 -7.852 -23,06% Whey 15.268 10.543 -4.725 -30,95% Acid casein 33.166 33.419 253 0,76% Rennet Casein 13.714 17.395 3.681 26,84% Caseinates 25.177 29.499 4.322 17,17% WPI/WPC > 80% 21.873 18.568 -3.305 -15,11% Lactose 21.779 24.682 2.903 13,33% Infant Formula 77.697 82.270 4.573 5,89% Butter 195.586 214.311 18.725 9,57% AMF 136.585 155.436 18.851 13,80% Cheese 300.394 341.841 41.447 13,80% Milk 198.176 194.449 -3.727 -1,88% Condensed 13.829 13.821 -8 -0,06% Cream 149.088 175.026 25.938 17,40% Imports strengthened across all major categories in October, with a clear increase in absolute volumes. Total New Zealand imports for the covered products rose from 1.37% in September to 6.35% in October, an increase of 48 million kilo LME. New Zealand imports Year to date October 2025 Product YTD Oct.'24 YTD Oct. '25 ∆ ∆% Whey 0404.10 6.874 8.087 1.213 17,65% Cheese 0406 7.633 8.796 1.163 15,24% Lactose 1702.11 & 19 81.172 85.617 4.445 5,48% Year-to-date theoretical stock levels have grown from 1.21 billion kilo LME at the start of the year to 1.39 billion kilo LME in October. This stock level represents 8.56% of New Zealand’s YTD milk production for 2025. The build-up is relatively high and is partly the result of increased milk production combined with higher import volumes. Current theoretical stocks have risen 15.46% since the beginning of the year.