China dairy imports up in October

October proved to be a generally positive month for China’s dairy import market, although only seven of fifteen tracked commodities recorded substantial gains.Whole milk powder rose by 3.98%, whey by 14.5%, caseinates by 103%, casein by 233%, lactose by 29%, cheese by 31%, and condensed milk by 9.62%. Notable volume declines, however, persisted in skim milk powder, whey products, WPC80/WPI, casein, and liquid dairy categories. Total imports for October increased by 7.73%, equivalent to an additional 80 million kilos in LME terms. October Imports October '24 October '25 ∆ ∆% SMP 10.414 9.440 -974 -9,35% WMP 15.521 16.138 617 3,98% Whey 56.377 64.537 8.160 14,47% WPC80/WPI's 3.352 2.544 -808 -24,11% Casein 486 1.618 1.132 232,92% Caseinates 1.278 2.600 1.322 103,44% Lactose 12.983 16.474 3.491 26,89% I/F 18.081 17.245 -836 -4,62% Cheese 9.865 12.894 3.029 30,70% Butter 5.927 5.666 -261 -4,40% AMF 2.159 968 -1.191 -55,16% Cream 24.170 20.382 -3.788 -15,67% Yoghurt 1.299 844 -455 -35,03% Condensed 1.382 1.515 133 9,62% Milk 31.528 28.556 -2.972 -9,43% Cumulative import performance through October remained positive, sustaining the upward momentum established earlier in the year. Although several segments, particularly skim milk powder, WPC80/WPI, casein, caseinates, cream, condensed milk, and fluid milk, underperformed relative to expectations, the broader market demonstrated underlying strength. Year-to-date imports were up 5.78% compared with the same period in 2024, representing an additional 723 million kilos in LME. YTD October imports YTD October '24 YTD October ' 25 ∆ ∆% SMP 188.863 181.694 -7.169 -3,80% WMP 338.688 352.860 14.172 4,18% Whey 522.286 580.374 58.088 11,12% WPC80/WPI's 31.084 30.130 -954 -3,07% Casein 16.922 14.289 -2.633 -15,56% Caseinates 25.209 20.223 -4.986 -19,78% Lactose 123.066 150.164 27.098 22,02% I/F 176.238 182.382 6.144 3,49% Cheese 140.715 156.022 15.307 10,88% Butter 81.666 87.682 6.016 7,37% AMF 25.728 30.409 4.681 18,19% Cream 227.667 214.673 -12.994 -5,71% Yoghurt 13.091 13.377 286 2,18% Condensed 15.091 12.895 -2.196 -14,55% Milk 340.999 307.716 -33.283 -9,76% The pace of declines that characterized the period between July and October 2024 gradually stabilized, and early signs of a shift in momentum emerged in November and December. This improvement was confirmed in the first half of 2025, while August marked only the second year-on-year contraction of the year. September and October returned to positive territory, reinforcing the recovery trend.Economic conditions in China remain mixed. The labour market continues to struggle with elevated unemployment levels. Inflation, meanwhile, has been volatile. After moving downward from August, inflation spiked briefly in January before falling into negative territory from February through May. June and July recorded positive readings, followed by a return to negative rates in August and September. October showed a renewed rise in inflation.In addition to economic pressure, domestic milk prices remain low. Farm-gate prices in August 2025 stood at CNY 304 per 100 kilos, equivalent to EUR 36.68 per 100 kilos.Excess domestic milk supply is gradually translating into higher export activity, and this trend is increasingly evident in the 2025 data. As of October, year-to-date exports had risen by 167%, reaching 346 million kilos in LME, with absolute export volumes continuing to climb. Shipments below 800 tons are likely to represent return consignments, while volumes above this threshold may indicate the early stages of China emerging as both a dairy importer and an exporter. YTD October Exports YTD October '24 YTD October ' 25 ∆ ∆% SMP 1.096 9.348 8.252 752,92% WMP 14.441 47.018 32.577 225,59% WPC80/WPI's 0 3 3 Casein 232 101 -131 -56,47% Caseinates 131 140 9 6,87% Lactose 786 678 -108 -13,74% I/F 5.609 6.153 544 9,70% Cheese 452 1.108 656 145,13% Butter 1.617 7.277 5.660 350,03% AMF 1.187 1.196 9 0,76% Yoghurt 3.670 3.976 306 8,34% Cream 18 83 65 361,11% Fermented 3.527 3.558 31 0,88% Condensed 1.692 1.266 -426 -25,18% Milk 24.399 30.821 6.422 26,32% Export performance by product category has been particularly striking. Whole milk powder exports increased by 226%, skim milk powder by 753%, and butter by 350% compared with 2024. For now, discussion around tariffs remains subdued. However, once trade considerations return to focus, their potential impact on the durability and direction of these export flows will require close attention.