Signals of further decline ahead of GDT event 392

Since the previous Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event, overall market sentiment has remained bearish. Event 392 may offer further direction, although international dairy futures in the US, New Zealand, and the EU continue to trend downward. Milk production is on track for a record year, with the major exporters, New Zealand, the US, and the EU, posting a combined year-to-date increase of 1.07% through September, equal to 2.15 billion kilo.Compared with the winning prices of the last GDT auction, calculations based on SGX Futures signal a likely downside if GDT results align with futures pricing, both under the “all contracts” method and the “C2 method.”Key market insightsNew Zealand milk production: Year-to-date September production is up 1.64%, an increase of 212 million kilo.SGX dairy futures: Market sentiment has weakened further in recent weeks. Average futures prices across all commodities show substantial declines versus winning prices at Event 391.Volumes and products: With the new season underway, the offered volumes remain high. Today’s auction volume totals 38,607 tons, down 1.49% from Event 391 due to the absence of BMP and a marginal reduction in WMP volume (-0.01%).Exports: Year-to-date (September 2025) exports increased by 1.13%, equivalent to 162 million kilos of liquid milk.Expected price impact: If Event 392 results match SGX Futures, the GDT Price Index could decline by 2.6% under both the “C2” and “all contracts” methodologies.Product contributions: Expected losses would be broad-based, with AMF down 32.1%, SMP down 6.7%, butter down 36.4%, and WMP down 24.7%.Volume composition: Whole Milk Powder (WMP) remains the dominant product in Event 392, accounting for 58.30% of the total volume. Any price movement here will heavily influence overall sentiment and the GDT Index.Global outlook: Dairy futures across New Zealand, the US, and the EU continue a negative trajectory.Futures development: Since the last GDT event, average futures prices (C1–C6) have fallen compared with Event 391’s average winning prices, except for SMP. AMF -7,89% SMP 1,02 Butter -8,09% WMP -2,35% Event 392 is characterized by a clearly bearish outlook based on futures market indicators. Combined with current conditions in the physical market, the likelihood of downward pricing pressure appears high.