EU fluid whey concentrate pricing marked by volatility

Fluid whey concentrate prices are rapidly fluctuating amid an overall decline, but the story behind this fall runs deeper than simple oversupply. Europe’s dairy chain is showing early signs of structural change: The Netherlands has quietly turned from exporter to importer, while Asia’s buyers are rebalancing their sourcing strategies. For traders, the figures point to volatility. For processors, they highlight flexibility, timing, and the balance between whey and milk powder output. This report unpacks how these movements are reshaping Europe’s position in the global whey market.According to DCA Market Intelligence, fluid whey concentrate (FWC) benchmarks closed at €750 per ton on October 23. This reflected a decline of 3.23% compared to the previous year, but also an increase of 25% compared to the previous month.Up until week 40, FWC pricing followed the same trend as the previous year, with a slight premium. Prices declined since, deviating from the previous year’s baseline until week 44, when prices turned around. This resulted in an overall decline throughout the year and in high price volatility, observing a high coefficient of variation (31.8%).The correlation between FWC and whey powder is increasingly disengaged, with their price correlation changing from 73.7% and 77.5% in 2024 to -11.2% and 42.3% in 2025. This suggests that FWC prices are increasingly aligned with the high-value whey protein concentrates (WPCs) and less so with whey powders. Nonetheless, whey powder prices have exhibited a lower volatility and greater stability than FWC throughout the year.Production, sales, and apparent consumptionAccording to the Prodcom database, the EU production and sales of liquid whey products reached 11.7 million tons in 2024. This reflected a contraction of 0.8% compared to the previous year within the bloc. The decline was primarily driven by lower volumes in Italy (-8.9%) and the Netherlands (-41.7%), which were only partially offset by growth in Germany (+1.3%), France (+9.6%), and Poland (+4.3%).Supply of cheese-based wheyThe pool of available whey solids, based on cheese production, has remained relatively stable across 2025. As of August, whey solids production has increased by 0.6% to 3.15 million tons, primarily driven by increases in Poland (+3.2%), Spain (+8.6%), and France (+0.5%). Meanwhile, the largest declines were observed in the Netherlands (-1.7%) and Germany (-0.2%).Then again, while whey solids expanded, FWC might not grow proportionally due to the allocation flexibility of processors. Whey solids can be diverted to whey powder, whey protein concentrate (WPC), whey protein isolate (WPI), reused in cheese manufacture, or fed to animals, complicating the quantification of FWC output.Trade is primarily focused on the internal marketThe fluid whey market is concentrated within the bloc*. As of July, the cumulative exports outside of the bloc reached 224 tons, a 45.3% contraction compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, internal trade totaled 685.295 tons, a decline of 2.9% compared to the previous year.Notably, the Netherlands’ exports declined by 40.1% year-over-year to 98,616 tons as of July. This contraction has been the main driver behind the regional weakness, partially offset by gains in Germany (+15.5%), France (+85.5%), and Italy (+36%).The largest growth in the flow of whey concentrate was observed in the Netherlands, where imports have grown by 34.3% compared to the previous year to 199,864 tons. This points to a shift in the Dutch orientation between 2024 and 2025, from a net-exporter to a net-importer. Germany also increased imports by 2.9% to 249,609 tons, cementing its position as the main importer in the bloc.Trade ultimately contracted, despite the increased demand for fluid whey in the Netherlands, primarily driven by lower imports from Denmark (-46.3%), Belgium (-72.1%), and Lithuania (-19.1%).EU international trade slows downWhile fluid whey concentrate trade is restricted to the EU bloc, it serves as the main input for several other products, including whey powder, WPC, and WPI. The EU’s cumulative export of whey products** totaled 366,219 tons as of July, contracting by 18.5% compared to the previous year. Whey exports, including whey powder, WPC, and WPI, were primarily directed to China (30.6%), Malaysia (10.9%), the United Kingdom (10%), and Indonesia (6.4%).This contraction was likely caused by a decline in the Chinese demand, despite growth in Southeast Asia and the UK. China’s government, the largest global importer, reported increasing imports of whey (+12.7%) and WPC/WPI (+5.16%). In contrast, the main exporters of whey products report a decline in the exports of whey products, the US by 8.58% and the EU by 9.74%. The demand for EU products in Asia was affected by competition with the US, while remaining dominant in the UK.While China and Indonesia have not reported whey products imports for 2025 in the UN Comtrade database, Malaysia and the UK reported an increase in the imports of whey products. As of July, the cumulative imports of Malaysia increased by 11.2% compared to the previous year to 127,495 tons. Imports were mostly sourced from EU countries, especially from Germany, France, and Poland.Despite the overall importance of EU imports, most of the expansion has been led by the United States. American imports increased by 131.8% year-over-year to 3,696 tons, the largest increase from any individual country. The US’s import share more than doubled to 13.4%, at the expense of the EU and New Zealand, both of which reported lower imports and a loss of market share.The UK also reported an import growth of 8.42% over the previous year to 104,038 tons, underlining the important role of the EU. A significant share of the imports’ growth was driven by increased sourcing from its largest provider, Ireland, accounting for 56.9% of imports. Ireland's exports to the UK increased by 31.2% compared to the previous year to 29,600 tons. Meanwhile, imports sourced from the US declined by 16.6%, accounting for a lower share of the total import volume (2.1%).Discussion and conclusionsAfter deviating from last year’s trend in week 40, FWC prices have oscillated rapidly over the last six weeks, to an overall decline. Several factors have fostered the high variability of FWC prices, such as the slight expansion of whey availability and demand contraction abroad.While the production of liquid whey declined in 2024, a higher volume of available cheese solids has been observed throughout 2025. This increased availability is importantly correlated with prices (-55.4%), suggesting that average monthly prices have declined as a result. Moreover, processors can avoid transforming all the whey solids into products and pushing whey prices further down, which could explain the lower drop in whey powder prices.Due to its fluid form and relatively high-water content, FWC is primarily traded within the EU bloc, with negligible trade outside the bloc’s borders. Nonetheless, EU export of whey products contracted across 2025, driven by a lower demand in Asian markets. A potential decline in the Chinese demand and intensified competition from the US market are also weighing on whey prices.In conclusion, the FWC market is currently responding to the simultaneous availability of raw materials and a reduced demand for whey products. Under these conditions, the drying stage in the supply chain becomes a bottleneck, as processors allocate their capacity to the products that will generate the highest margins. Additionally, the high-value WPCs are increasingly relevant for the allocation of whey solids. As a result, FWC pricing is increasingly volatile and vulnerable to price shocks.Footnotes*: Trade was quantified through the Harmonized System (HS) codes 04041048 (Whey and modified whey, whether or not concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, of a protein content nitrogen content x 6.38, by weight of