GDT event 391 reflects broad price weakness

Event 391 recorded a decline of 2.4%, aligning with the downward signal previously indicated by SGX futures for both the “C2” and “all contracts” indices. The average winning price closed at $3,768 per ton, representing a 2.91% decrease compared with Event 390.New Zealand’s offered volume fell by 3.8%, or approximately 1.286 tons, relative to the previous event. This reduction reflects a combination of the introduction of BMP and lower volumes of WMP (-1.10%), AMF (-8.17%), Butter (-9.42%), Cheddar (-6.17%), and SMP (-9.68%). For the year to September, New Zealand’s milk production rose by 1.64%, adding 212 million kilo.GDT event 391 results PRICE INDEX DOWN -2.4%, AWP $ 3.768 NZ Supply AMF DOWN -1.9%, AWP $6,887 ↓ BUTTER DOWN -4.3%, AWP $ 6,371 ↓ Cheddar DOWN -6.6%, AWP $4,449 ↓ SMP UNCH, AWP $ 2,559 ↔ WMP DOWN - 2.7%, AWP $ 3,503 ↓ European and US Supply Butter (Solarec) DOWN -2.58%/ $ 5,788/mt (average price) ↓ Mozzarella UP 1.6% AWP $ 3,306 ↑ Lactose ( Arla) N.A. AWP N.A. ↔ SMP W-Europe, Arla, DOWN -1.61%, AWP $ 2,442 (average price) ↓ SMP W-Europe, Solarec, DOWN -3.15%, AWP $ 2,458 (average price) ↓ SMP USA N.A., / AWP N.A.. ↔ WMP W-Europe, Solarec DOWN -3.43% AWP $ 3,900 (average price) ↓ The GDT Price Index decreased by 2.4%, with the average winning price reaching $3,768 per ton.Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF) declined 1.9%, while Contract 1 remained unchanged. The butterfat value in AMF stood at $6,922 per ton on a 100% fat basis.Butter prices decreased 4.3%, with a butterfat value of $7,772 per ton on a 100% fat basis. The price differential in butterfat value between Butter and AMF is now +$801 per ton in favor of Butter.Cheddar prices fell 6.6%.Skim Milk Powder (SMP) remained stable overall, though C2 and C3 contracts rose slightly, while C1, C4, and C5 declined, with C5 experiencing the largest drop.Whole Milk Powder (WMP) decreased 2.7%, also showing its largest loss in C5.A notable price spread emerged between front-month and later-dated contracts in AMF, and to a lesser extent in Butter. NZ Front Deferred Last vs front AMF $7.170 $6.850 -4,46% BUTTER $6.475 $6.606 2,02% CHEDDAR $4.475 $4.486 0,25% SMP $2.580 $2.570 -0,39% WMP $3.515 $3.475 -1,14% European and US SupplyEuropean dairy prices were generally lower, except for Mozzarella. Arla Lactose and US SMP remained unchanged; however, US SMP was not offered in this event. The day after the GDT auction, the CME spot call session saw US SMP settle at $2,631 per ton (FOB basis).Following the auction, the SGX market reacted negatively, with most commodities declining in value except SMP, which posted gains across all contracts. Butter recorded the steepest decline. WMP 23/10/2025 05/11/2025 ∆ ∆% November $3.455 $3.445 -$10 -0,29% December $3.475 $3.430 -$45 -1,29% January $3.475 $3.435 -$40 -1,15% February $3.515 $3.455 -$60 -1,71% March $3.550 $3.480 -$70 -1,97% April $3.595 $3.535 -$60 -1,67% SMP November $2.525 $2.545 $20 0,79% December $2.550 $2.570 $20 0,78% January $2.560 $2.570 $10 0,39% February $2.575 $2.580 $5 0,19% March $2.575 $2.610 $35 1,36% April $2.615 $2.640 $25 0,96% AMF November $6.770 $6.850 $80 1,18% December $6.750 $6.690 -$60 -0,89% January $6.680 $6.675 -$5 -0,07% February $6.680 $6.625 -$55 -0,82% March $6.630 $6.625 -$5 -0,08% April $6.580 $6.600 $20 0,30% BUTTER November $6.530 $6.305 -$225 -3,45% December $6.470 $6.280 -$190 -2,94% January $6.470 $5.945 -$525 -8,11% February $6.465 $5.850 -$615 -9,51% March $6.465 $6.140 -$325 -5,03% April $6.405 $6.100 -$305 -4,76% Average prices C1-C6 23/10/2025 05/11/2025 ∆ ∆% WMP $3.511 $3.463 -$48 -1,35% SMP $2.567 $2.586 $19 0,75% AMF $6.682 $6.678 -$4 -0,06% BUTTER $6.468 $6.103 -$364 -5,63% Overall, the market’s response to SGX remained muted for AMF, while SMP continued to show upside momentum.