Bearish sentiment ahead of GDT Event 391

Since the previous Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event, market sentiment has remained bearish. Event 391 may offer further direction, as international dairy futures in the United States, New Zealand, and the European Union continue to trend lower.Based on SGX Futures data, calculations indicate a potential downside compared with the winning prices of the previous GDT auction. Both the “all contracts” and “C2” assessment methods point to a likely decline if GDT results align with current futures pricing.Key market insightsNew Zealand milk production: Year-to-date production through September increased by 1.64%, or 212 million kilo.SGX dairy futures: Market sentiment has weakened in recent weeks. Average futures prices across all commodities have declined significantly compared with Event 390 winning prices.Volumes and products: With the new season underway, the offered volumes remain substantial. The total auction volume for Event 391 is 39,190 tons, down 3.18% from Event 390. This includes smaller volumes of Whole Milk Powder (−1.10%), Skim Milk Powder (−9.68%), Cheddar (−6.17%), Butter (−9.42%), and Anhydrous Milk Fat (−8.17%), though Butter Milk Powder remains present in the offerings.Exports: Year-to-date (September 2025) exports rose 1.13%, equivalent to 162 million kilo in Liquid Milk Equivalent.Expected price impact: If Event 391 results align with SGX Futures, the GDT Price Index could decline by approximately 2.5% under both the “C2” and “all contracts” methodologies.Composition of volumes: Whole milk powder remains the dominant product in Event 391, representing 57.44% of total offerings. Any significant price movement in this category will have a major influence on overall market sentiment and the GDT index.Global outlook: Dairy futures in New Zealand, the US, and the EU continue to show a negative trajectory.Futures development: Since the previous GDT event, average futures prices (C1–C6) have declined relative to the Average Winning Prices (AWPs) from Event 390, except for Skim Milk Powder. AMF -4,85% SMP 0,59% Butter -5,15% WMP -3,22% Overall, GDT Event 391 is expected to maintain a bearish tone. Futures market performance and current physical market conditions both suggest limited upward momentum and an increased likelihood of price declines.