Slight EU milk solids production suggests potential market stability

EU milk production showed a positive trend year-to-date (YTD) in July 2025, increasing by 0.54%, equivalent to an additional 354 million kilo of milk compared with the same period in 2024.Among the 26 reporting countries, 11 recorded higher output while 15 saw declines. The strongest performer in July was Ireland, with a rise of 6.32% (+346 million kilo). Poland also performed well, up by 1.66% (+133 million kilo). On the other hand, Germany recorded the sharpest decline, down by 2.31% (-448 million kilo), followed by the Netherlands, which fell 1.61% (-132 million kilo).Regarding milk fat and protein, 16 countries recorded higher cumulative tonnages in both components compared to YTD July 2024. Countries that showed declines in butterfat production were Croatia, Bulgaria, Greece, Belgium, Germany, France, Finland, and the Netherlands. For protein, the same countries showed losses, along with Spain and the Czech Republic.When combining fat and protein volumes, a noteworthy pattern emerges. Assuming that fat plus protein represents total milk solids:Ireland produced 6.56% more milk but 7.01% more total solids.Cyprus saw milk production rise by 3.39%, with milk solids up 4.09%.Slovenia increased milk output by 3.18% and milk solids by 3.55%.In total, EU fat and protein production YTD July was up by 0.26%, equal to an additional 17 million kilo of fat and protein combined. Using Friesland Campina’s standard composition values (4.45% fat and 3.58% protein), this corresponds to approximately 2.15 million kilo of milk in equivalent volume.Despite these modest increases, surpluses remain limited. Exports YTD July show a deficit of 188.59 million kilo in Liquid Milk Equivalent (LME), while imports increased by 177.56 million kilo LME. Combining production growth and imports (+2.15 million + 177.56 million kilo LME = +179.71 million kilo) against the export shortfall (-188.59 million kilo LME) leaves only 11 million kilo of LME as a net surplus. This represents just 0.02% of total milk production YTD July. Given such tight market balances, there appears to be potential for upward price movement during the second half of the year.