Diary futures reflect weakness across major exchanges

During the forty-seventh trading week of 2025, global dairy markets continued to exhibit downward trends. Significant declines were recorded across New Zealand, the United States, and Europe. The only commodity seemingly resistant to the trend was whey, both in Europe and the United States.In the CME markets, whey futures displayed a general upward trend. All other commodities declined, except for Butter C1, Cheese C1 and C2, and Milk Class III C1–C3, which recorded modest gains. CONTRACT CME Product Month 13/Oct 17/Oct ∆ ∆ % SMP October $2.557 $2.542 ↓ -0,60% November $2.527 $2.503 ↓ -0,94% December $2.524 $2.447 ↓ -3,06% January $2.510 $2.409 ↓ -4,02% February $2.524 $2.420 ↓ -4,15% March $2.536 $2.450 ↓ -3,37% Average $2.530 $2.462 ↓ -2,68% Butter October $3.770 $3.783 ↑ 0,35% November $3.847 $3.772 ↓ -1,95% December $4.023 $3.858 ↓ -4,11% January $4.172 $3.957 ↓ -5,15% February $4.299 $4.056 ↓ -5,64% March $4.632 $4.431 ↓ -4,34% Average $4.124 $3.976 ↓ -3,58% Whey October $1.315 $1.312 ↑ -0,25% November $1.291 $1.350 ↑ 4,57% December $1.273 $1.328 ↑ 4,33% January $1.253 $1.312 ↑ 4,66% February $1.235 $1.290 ↑ 4,46% March $1.235 $1.252 ↑ 1,43% Average $1.267 $1.307 ↑ 3,18% Block Cheese October $3.818 $3.845 ↑ 0,69% November $3.660 $3.748 ↑ 2,41% December $3.618 $3.611 ↓ -0,18% January $3.613 $3.556 ↓ -1,59% February $3.673 $3.585 ↓ -2,40% March $3.748 $3.693 ↓ -1,47% Average $3.688 $3.673 ↓ -0,42% Milk Class III October $37,24 $37,43 ↑ 0,53% November $35,47 $36,71 ↑ 3,48% December $35,96 $36,40 ↑ 1,23% January $35,71 $35,69 ↓ -0,06% February $36,20 $35,85 ↓ -0,97% March $36,95 $36,73 ↓ -0,60% Average $36,25 $36,47 ↓ 0,59% Milk Class IV October $31,42 $31,19 ↓ -0,70% November $31,48 $30,91 ↓ -1,82% December $32,54 $31,50 ↓ -3,18% January $33,07 $31,48 ↓ -4,80% February $33,73 $31,99 ↓ -5,16% March $35,12 $33,86 ↓ -3,58% Average $32,89 $31,82 ↓ -3,25% The CME spot market, however, presented a mixed picture. Most commodities strengthened, except butter and skimmed milk powder (SMP), both of which moved lower. CME Spot market Product 13/Oct 17/Oct ∆ ∆ % Dry Whey $1.400 $1.444 ↑ 3,15% Cheese Blocks $3.682 $3.913 ↑ 6,29% Cheese Barrels $3.770 $3.902 ↑ 3,51% Butter $3.571 $3.516 ↓ -1,54% SMP $2.486 $2.447 ↓ -1,55% Following the weakness triggered by the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction on 7 October, sentiment on the SGX dairy futures market remained extremely weak over the past week. Losses were observed across nearly all contracts, except for AMF C1 and Milk ’27, both of which remained unchanged. SGX Product Month 13/Oct 17/Oct ∆ ∆ % WMP October $3.655 $3.640 ↓ -0,41% November $3.610 $3.520 ↓ -2,49% December $3.610 $3.505 ↓ -2,91% January $3.625 $3.530 ↓ -2,62% February $3.625 $3.550 ↓ -2,07% March $3.630 $3.555 ↓ -2,07% Average $3.626 $3.550 ↓ -2,09% SMP October $2.580 $2.540 ↓ -1,09% November $2.570 $2.515 ↓ -1,45% December $2.580 $2.525 ↓ -1,09% January $2.625 $2.550 ↓ -0,72% February $2.640 $2.560 ↓ -1,40% March $2.685 $2.565 ↓ -0,88% Average $2.613 $2.543 ↓ -1,10% AMF October $6.860 $6.860 ↔ 0,00% November $6.765 $6.730 ↓ -0,52% December $6.645 $6.600 ↓ -0,68% January $6.645 $6.600 ↓ -0,68% February $6.645 $6.595 ↓ -0,75% March $6.600 $6.565 ↓ -0,53% Average $6.693 $6.658 ↓ -0,52% Butter October $6.695 $6.700 ↓ 0,07% November $6.685 $6.560 ↓ -1,87% December $6.615 $6.540 ↓ -1,13% January $6.580 $6.480 ↓ -1,52% February $6.600 $6.490 ↓ -1,67% March $6.565 $6.510 ↓ -0,84% Average $6.623 $6.547 ↓ -1,16% Milk Sept '25 $9,90 $9,86 ↓ -0,40% Sept '26 $9,32 $9,30 ↓ -0,21% Sept '27 $8,90 $8,90 ↔ 0,00% European dairy markets also reflected a broadly negative tone, with about half of the contracts declining. SMP fell across C2–C6 contracts, while C1 remained unchanged. All butter contracts declined except C1, which increased slightly. Whey performed positively overall, with gains in all contracts except C1–C4, which held steady. Liquid milk moved lower in C5 and C6, while C1–C4 posted modest increases. EEX in EUR Product Month 13/Oct 17/Oct ∆ ∆ % SMP October €2.175 €2.175 ↔ 0,00% November €2.185 €2.105 ↓ -3,66% December €2.190 €2.105 ↓ -3,88% January €2.185 €2.131 ↓ -2,47% February €2.195 €2.145 ↓ -2,28% March €2.211 €2.178 ↓ -1,49% Average €2.190 €2.140 ↓ -2,30% Butter October €5.500 €5.531 ↑ 0,56% November €5.267 €5.035 ↓ -4,40% December €5.196 €4.973 ↓ -4,29% January €5.223 €4.930 ↓ -5,61% February €5.250 €4.985 ↓ -5,05% March €5.304 €5.129 ↓ -3,30% Average €5.290 €5.097 ↓ -3,65% Whey October €900 $900 ↔ 0,00% November €930 €930 ↔ 0,00% December €945 €945 ↔ 0,00% January €955 €955 ↔ 0,00% February €960 €965 ↑ 0,52% March €965 €975 ↑ 1,04% Average €943 €945 ↑ 0,27% Liq Milk October €52,99 €53,51 ↑ 0,98% November €52,22 €52,25 ↑ 0,06% December €51,44 €51,46 ↑ 0,04% January €50,47 €50,49 ↑ 0,04% February €49,24 €49,23 ↓ -0,02% March €47,56 €47,54 ↓ -0,04% Average €50,65 €50,75 ↑ 0,18% EEX in USD EEX in USD euro/Dollar 1,1569 1,1655 >> 0,74% Product Month 13/Oct 17/Oct ∆ ∆ % SMP October $2.548 $2.528 ↓ -0,80% November $2.560 $2.539 ↓ -0,80% December $2.573 $2.545 ↓ -1,07% January $2.614 $2.539 ↓ -2,85% February $2.639 $2.558 ↓ -3,09% February $2.663 $2.569 ↓ -3,51% Average $2.599 $2.546 ↓ -2,04% Butter October $6.546 $6.407 ↓ -2,13% November $6.560 $6.092 ↓ -7,14% December $6.341 $6.092 ↓ -3,94% January $6.319 $6.089 ↓ -3,63% February $6.371 $6.138 ↓ -3,65% February $6.375 $6.200 ↓ -2,75% Average $6.419 $6.170 ↓ -3,88% Whey October $1.048 $1.046 ↓ -0,25% November $1.084 $1.119 ↑ 3,27% December $1.095 $1.120 ↑ 2,27% January $1.107 $1.133 ↑ 2,35% February $1.113 $1.139 ↑ 2,33% February $1.119 $1.150 ↑ 2,83% Average $1.094 $1.118 ↑ 2,15% Liq Milk October $62,08 $61,58 ↓ -0,80% November $61,18 $60,68 ↓ -0,80% December $60,26 $59,78 ↓ -0,80% January $59,15 $58,66 ↓ -0,82% February $57,72 $57,23 ↓ -0,84% February $55,75 $55,29 ↓ -0,82% Average $59,36 $58,87 ↓ -0,82% When comparing 2025 performance to the final trading session of 2024, a clear regional divergence emerges. The United States and the European Union recorded the weakest results, with downward pressure evident across all key dairy products. In the US market, Cheddar Barrels were the only product to show a slight increase.In contrast, New Zealand emerged as the strongest performer, with butter and Milk ’27 contracts improving, while losses in other products were notably smaller than those observed in the US and EU. Region Product Change 17/10/'25 VS 27/12/'24 USA CME SMP -18,91% BUTTER -33,76% WHEY -13,94% BLOCK CHEESE -11,31% MILK CLASS III -16,70% MILK CLASS IV -31,06% USA CME SPOT CALL MARKET WHEY -11,79% CHEDDAR BLOCKS -4,63% CHEDDAR BARRELS 1,14% BUTTER -37,92% SMP -20,08% NEW ZEALAND SGX SMP -4,34% SMP -10,32% AMF -2,20% BUTTER 3,85% MILK '25 -0,90% MILK '26 -0,96% MILK '27 1,14% EU EEX SMP -26,03% BUTTER -33,87% WHEY -7,80% LIQ MILK -12,05%