US French fries stocks reason for concern

The potato production in the United States for the harvest year 2024 is 5% smaller than the yield from the previous year. However, the balance of trade does not reflect this smaller harvest. Given that there are fewer potatoes but trade remains relatively unchanged, the difference appears elsewhere, specifically in the Cold Storage Summary. Typically, the first half of the year following the potato harvest is when the American potato processing industry builds up stock for the latter half and end of the season. This season, building up stocks has been challenging. On December 31st, there were 947 million pounds of frozen fries in cold storage and 232 million pounds of other potato products. This is more than what was in stock a year earlier and above the five-year average. In January 2025, the American cold storage contained 932 million pounds of frozen fries according to a USDA survey. That represents a decrease of 1.7% from December and 0.1% less than January 2024. A decline in stock during this time of year is unusual as processors typically build a buffer for later in the season. The US is a net importer of fries. Over the past five years, imports have increased while exports have decreased. In December, the US exported 92,618 tons of fries, the smallest export in five years. With 227,204 tons, imports were on the lower range of the last three years. Meanwhile, the potato harvest in the US last fall was 19 million tons, which is 5% less than the 2023 harvest. According to the latest USDA numbers, potato stocks in the US were about 4% down on February 1st compared to a year earlier.