Bearish momentum continues across dairy futures

During the sixteenth trading week of 2025, global dairy futures maintained a broadly negative trajectory. Significant price declines were recorded across New Zealand, the United States, and Europe. The US market continued to show a stronger bearish sentiment compared with previous weeks.In the CME markets, whey futures generally trended upward, except for C5 and C6, which remained unchanged. All other commodities declined, with the steepest losses observed in butter, cheese, and both liquid milk contracts. CONTRACT CME Product Month 06/Oct 10/Oct ∆ ∆ % SMP October $2.578 $2.557 ↓ -0,81% November $2.590 $2.552 ↓ -1,47% December $2.587 $2.513 ↓ -2,83% January $2.588 $2.497 ↓ -3,53% February $2.588 $2.504 ↓ -3,26% March $2.599 $2.519 ↓ -3,10% Average $2.588 $2.524 ↓ -2,50% Butter October $3.948 $3.770 ↓ -4,51% November $4.073 $3.848 ↓ -5,53% December $4.252 $4.013 ↓ -5,63% January $4.475 $4.172 ↓ -6,77% February $4.586 $4.317 ↓ -5,88% March $4.850 $4.658 ↓ -3,97% Average $4.364 $4.129 ↓ -5,38% Whey October $1.307 $1.315 ↑ 0,59% November $1.304 $1.314 ↑ 0,76% December $1.268 $1.273 ↑ 0,43% January $1.251 $1.257 ↑ 0,44% February $1.235 $1.235 ↔ 0,00% March $1.235 $1.235 ↔ 0,00% Average $1.267 $1.271 ↑ 0,38% Block October $3.867 $3.832 ↓ -0,91% Cheese November $3.834 $3.671 ↓ -4,26% December $3.759 $3.629 ↓ -3,46% January $3.750 $3.631 ↓ -3,17% February $3.781 $3.675 ↓ -2,80% March $3.810 $3.741 ↓ -1,79% Average $3.800 $3.696 ↓ -2,73% Milk October $37,54 $37,30 ↓ -0,65% Class III November $37,28 $35,74 ↓ -4,14% December $37,65 $36,20 ↓ -3,86% January $37,21 $35,96 ↓ -3,38% February $37,41 $36,42 ↓ -2,65% March $37,48 $36,95 ↓ -1,41% Average $37,43 $36,43 ↓ -2,68% Milk October $32,32 $31,61 ↓ -2,18% Class IV November $33,29 $31,64 ↓ -4,97% December $34,61 $32,21 ↓ -6,94% January $35,19 $33,02 ↓ -6,14% February $35,63 $33,58 ↓ -5,75% March $37,04 $35,12 ↓ -5,18% Average $34,68 $32,86 ↓ -5,23% The CME spot market, in contrast, showed a positive performance across all commodities, except whey, which also recorded gains. CME Spot market Product 06/Oct 10/Oct ∆ ∆ % Dry Whey $1.389 $1.400 ↑ 0,79% Cheese Blocks $3.858 $3.748 ↓ -2,86% Cheese Barrels $3.902 $3.770 ↓ -3,39% Butter $3.737 $3.538 ↓ -5,31% SMP $2.557 $2.486 ↓ -2,80% On the SGX dairy futures market, sentiment remained weak following the GDT auction on 16 September. All SMP contracts posted losses. WMP prices increased across most maturities, except C6, which moved lower. AMF futures rose in all contracts except C6, which remained stable. Butter futures were mostly weaker, except for C2, which gained, and C6, which was unchanged. All milk futures declined. SGX Product Month 06/Oct 10/Oct ∆ ∆ % WMP October $3.645 $3.660 ↑ 0,41% November $3.595 $3.600 ↑ 0,14% December $3.590 $3.610 ↑ 0,56% January $3.605 $3.610 ↑ 0,14% February $3.615 $3.625 ↑ 0,28% March $3.630 $3.625 ↓ -0,14% Average $3.613 $3.622 ↑ 0,23% SMP October $2.600 $2.580 ↓ -1,09% November $2.600 $2.570 ↓ -1,45% December $2.625 $2.580 ↓ -1,09% January $2.660 $2.620 ↓ -0,72% February $2.660 $2.630 ↓ -1,40% March $2.660 $2.665 ↓ -0,88% Average $2.634 $2.608 ↓ -1,10% AMF October $6.640 $6.860 ↑ 3,31% November $6.610 $6.770 ↑ 2,42% December $6.570 $6.650 ↑ 1,22% January $6.575 $6.650 ↑ 1,14% February $6.605 $6.650 ↑ 0,68% March $6.605 $6.605 ↔ 0,00% Average $6.601 $6.698 ↑ 1,46% Butter October $6.775 $6.695 ↓ -1,18% November $6.680 $6.685 ↑ 0,07% December $6.640 $6.615 ↓ -0,38% January $6.605 $6.580 ↓ -0,38% February $6.625 $6.600 ↓ -0,38% March $6.565 $6.565 ↔ 0,00% Average $6.648 $6.623 ↓ -0,38% Milk Sept '25 $10,15 $9,82 ↓ -3,25% Sept '26 $9,85 $9,30 ↓ -5,58% Sept '27 $9,28 $8,90 ↓ -4,09% In Europe, the EEX dairy complex also showed a predominantly negative performance. SMP contracts fell from C2 through C6, while C1 and C2 remained unchanged. Butter contracts declined across the board. Whey futures rose in all maturities, while liquid milk declined in every contract except C1 through C3, which held steady. EEX in EUR Product Month 06/Oct 10/Oct ∆ ∆ % SMP October €2.175 €2.175 ↔ 0,00% November €2.185 €2.185 ↔ 0,00% December €2.196 €2.190 ↓ -0,27% January €2.231 €2.185 ↓ -2,06% February €2.253 €2.201 ↓ -2,31% March €2.273 €2.211 ↓ -2,73% Average €2.219 €2.191 ↓ -1,25% Butter October €5.588 €5.513 ↓ -1,34% November €5.600 €5.242 ↓ -6,39% December €5.413 €5.242 ↓ -3,16% January €5.394 €5.240 ↓ -2,86% February €5.438 €5.282 ↓ -2,87% March €5.442 €5.335 ↓ -1,97% Average €5.479 €5.309 ↓ -3,11% Whey October €895 $900 ↑ 0,56% November €925 €963 ↑ 4,11% December €935 €964 ↑ 3,10% January €945 €975 ↑ 3,17% February €950 €980 ↑ 3,16% March €955 €990 ↑ 3,66% Average €934 €962 ↑ 2,98% Liq Milk October €52,99 €52,99 ↔ 0,00% November €52,22 €52,22 ↔ 0,00% December €51,44 €51,44 ↔ 0,00% January €50,49 €50,48 ↓ -0,02% February €49,27 €49,25 ↓ -0,04% March €47,59 €47,58 ↓ -0,02% Average €50,67 €50,66 ↓ -0,01% EEX in US Dollars EEX in USD euro/Dollar 1,1715 1,1621 >> -0,80% Product Month 06/Oct 10/Oct ∆ ∆ % SMP October $2.548 $2.528 ↓ -0,80% November $2.560 $2.539 ↓ -0,80% December $2.573 $2.545 ↓ -1,07% January $2.614 $2.539 ↓ -2,85% February $2.639 $2.558 ↓ -3,09% February $2.663 $2.569 ↓ -3,51% Average $2.599 $2.546 ↓ -2,04% Butter October $6.546 $6.407 ↓ -2,13% November $6.560 $6.092 ↓ -7,14% December $6.341 $6.092 ↓ -3,94% January $6.319 $6.089 ↓ -3,63% February $6.371 $6.138 ↓ -3,65% February $6.375 $6.200 ↓ -2,75% Average $6.419 $6.170 ↓ -3,88% Whey October $1.048 $1.046 ↓ -0,25% November $1.084 $1.119 ↑ 3,27% December $1.095 $1.120 ↑ 2,27% January $1.107 $1.133 ↑ 2,35% February $1.113 $1.139 ↑ 2,33% February $1.119 $1.150 ↑ 2,83% Average $1.094 $1.118 ↑ 2,15% Liq Milk October $62,08 $61,58 ↓ -0,80% November $61,18 $60,68 ↓ -0,80% December $60,26 $59,78 ↓ -0,80% January $59,15 $58,66 ↓ -0,82% February $57,72 $57,23 ↓ -0,84% February $55,75 $55,29 ↓ -0,82% Average $59,36 $58,87 ↓ -0,82% A comparison of 2025 performance with the final trading session of 2024 reveals a pronounced regional divergence. The United States and the European Union recorded the weakest results, with pricing pressure evident across all major dairy commodities. In contrast, New Zealand emerged as the relative outperformer, with most prices improving except for WMP, SMP, AMF, and the Milk ’26 contract, which moved lower. Region Product Change 10/10/'25 VS 27/12/'24 USA CME WMP -16,88% BUTTER -31,21% WHEY -16,31% BLOCK CHEESE -10,74% MILK CLASS III -16,79% MILK CLASS IV -28,81% USA CME SPOT CALL MARKET WHEY -14,48% CHEDDAR BLOCKS -8,66% CHEDDAR BARRELS -2,28% BUTTER -37,53% SMP -18,82% NEW ZEALAND SGX WMP -2,41% SMP -8,02% AMF -1,62% BUTTER 5,07% MILK '25 1,14% MILK '26 -0,96% MILK '27 1,14% EU EEX SMP -24,26% BUTTER -31,12% WHEY -6,15% LIQ MILK -12,20%