GDT Event 389 posts price index decline

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Event 389 recorded a decline of 1.6%, a result close to the “C2” prediction of SGX futures. The average winning price closed at $3,921 per ton, representing a 2.97% decrease compared with Event 388.New Zealand’s offered volume rose by 4.56% compared with Event 388. This increase was largely driven by the addition of BMP and higher WMP volumes (+10.36%). In contrast, other product volumes fell: AMF -6.71%, Butter -6.66%, Cheddar -1.22%, and SMP -4.12%. For the year through August, New Zealand’s milk production increased by 1.42%, adding 147 million kilo of milk.GDT Event 389 results: PRICE INDEX DOWN -1.6%, AWP $ 3.921 NZ Supply AMF UP 1.2%, AWP $6,916 ↑ BUTTER DOWN -3.0%, AWP $ 6,712 ↓ Cheddar UP 0.8%, AWP $4,858 ↑ SMP DOWN -0.5%, AWP $ 2,599 ↓ WMP DOWN - 2.3%, AWP $ 3,696 ↓ European and US Supply EU Butter (Solarec) N.A./ N.A. (average price) ↔ Mozzarella DOWN -11.8% AWP $ 3,393 ↓ Lactose ( Arla) N.A. AWP N.A. ↔ SMP W-Europe, Arla, DOWN -5.87%, AWP $ 2,510 (average price) ↓ SMP W-Europe, Solarec, DOWN -4.75%, AWP $ 2,473 (average price) ↓ SMP USA N.A., / AWP N.A.. ↔ WMP W-Europe, Solarec DOWN -6.76% AWP $ 4.095 (average price) ↓ The GDT Price Index declined by 1.6%, with the average winning price settling at $3,921 per ton.Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF): Prices increased by 1.2%. The C1 contract rose 16.60%. On a 100% fat basis, AMF carried a value of $6,951 per ton.Butter: Prices fell by 3%. On a 100% fat basis, butter was valued at $8,136 per ton. The butterfat differential between butter and AMF now stands at $1,185 per ton, favoring butter.Skim Milk Powder (SMP): Prices slipped by 0.5%. Losses were concentrated in C1, while C4 and C5 posted gains.Whole Milk Powder (WMP): Prices fell by 2.3%, with the steepest declines recorded in C5.A notable spread was observed between front-month and later-dated SMP contracts, suggesting some divergence in market expectations. NZ Front Deferred Last vs front AMF $6.835 $6.740 -1,39% BUTTER $6.858 $6.738 -1,75% CHEDDAR $4.953 $4.899 -1,09% SMP $2.595 $2.695 3,85% WMP $3.700 $3.640 -1,62% European and US supply:European prices were generally lower, except for Solarec butter, Arla Lactose, and US SMP, which remained unchanged. Notably, US SMP was not offered in this auction. However, on the day following the GDT event, the CME spot call session saw US SMP settle at $2,675 per ton (FOB basis).The SGX market responded negatively after the auction. While C1 contracts for WMP, SMP, AMF, and Butter showed increases, the sharpest declines were seen in WMP and AMF. WMP 17/09/2025 08/10/2025 ∆ ∆% October $3.640 $3.650 $10 0,27% November $3.635 $3.605 -$30 -0,83% December $3.635 $3.605 -$30 -0,83% January $3.665 $3.615 -$50 -1,36% February $3.665 $3.625 -$40 -1,09% March $3.655 $3.635 -$20 -0,55% SMP October $2.555 $2.590 $35 1,37% November $2.570 $2.580 $10 0,39% December $2.595 $2.600 $5 0,19% January $2.635 $2.660 $25 0,95% February $2.660 $2.660 $0 0,00% March $2.670 $2.590 -$80 -3,00% AMF October $6.690 $6.870 $180 2,69% November $6.645 $6.800 $155 2,33% December $6.690 $6.650 -$40 -0,60% January $6.700 $6.650 -$50 -0,75% February $6.700 $6.605 -$95 -1,42% March $6.700 $6.505 -$195 -2,91% BUTTER October $6.610 $6.710 $100 1,51% November $6.550 $6.700 $150 2,29% December $6.525 $6.640 $115 1,76% January $6.560 $6.605 $45 0,69% February $6.600 $6.625 $25 0,38% March $6.560 $6.565 $5 0,08% Average prices C1-C6 17/09/2025 08/10/2025 ∆ ∆% WMP $3.649 $3.623 -$27 -0,73% SMP $2.614 $2.613 -$1 -0,03% AMF $6.688 $6.680 -$8 -0,11% BUTTER $6.568 $6.641 $73 1,12% The overall market reaction to GDT Event 389 has been negative, though the response on SGX has remained relatively modest.