New Zealand dairy trade: Export rise in fats amid powder decline

August, the third month of the 2025/26 milk season, recorded a modest rise in milk production of 1.83%, or an additional 26 million kilos. This followed a sharp increase of 14.47% in June and a smaller gain of 0.65% in July. Year-to-date (YTD) production through August stands at 1.42%, equivalent to 147 million kilos. August stands two months before the seasonal peak begins.Export trends in August were mixed. Most milk powders showed significant declines, except for whole milk powder (WMP), caseins and caseinates, and WPC 80/WPI. Fat-based products continued to perform strongly, reflecting New Zealand’s long-standing position as the most cost-competitive origin for butter fats. Exports of butter and anhydrous milk fat (AMF) surged by 28.76% and 52.96%, respectively.In contrast, cheese underperformed, falling 15.11% in August compared with a 11.72% decline in July. Total exports for the month reached 21.14%, or 154,413 tons in liquid milk equivalent (LME). New Zealand exports August 2025 Product August '24 August '25 ∆ ∆% WMP 35.219 46.237 11.018 31,28% SMP 14.969 14.608 -361 -2,41% BMP 1.503 1.234 -269 -17,90% Whey 1.179 373 -806 -68,36% Acid casein 1.189 5.240 4.051 340,71% Rennet Casein 151 1.020 869 575,50% Caseinates 1.194 2.136 942 78,89% WPI/WPC > 80% 1.084 1.096 12 1,11% Lactose 1.754 2.877 1.123 64,03% Infant Formula 7.688 7.477 -211 -2,74% Butter 11.594 14.929 3.335 28,76% AMF 5.901 9.026 3.125 52,96% Cheese 21.900 18.592 -3.308 -15,11% Milk 18.783 19.095 312 1,66% Cream 13.244 16.016 2.772 20,93% Cumulative results through August show a similar pattern to July. Most milk powders remain in decline, alongside caseins and caseinates, lactose, and infant formula. By contrast, fat-based products maintained their upward momentum, underscoring robust demand in this segment. YTD exports now stand at 0.54%, equal to 72,829 tons in LME, demonstrating steady growth despite weaker powder performance. New Zealand exports Year To Date August 2025 Product YTD August '24 YTD August '25 ∆ ∆% WMP 879.993 850.599 -29.394 -3,34% SMP 293.766 273.407 -20.359 -6,93% BMP 28.552 21.928 -6.624 -23,20% Whey 12.976 8.625 -4.351 -33,53% Acid casein 28.905 29.302 397 1,37% Rennet Casein 12.792 14.233 1.441 11,26% Caseinates 22.142 23.608 1.466 6,62% WPI/WPC > 80% 18.812 15.909 -2.903 -15,43% Lactose 18.807 20.988 2.181 11,60% Infant Formula 61.917 67.922 6.005 9,70% Butter 159.609 175.844 16.235 10,17% AMF 112.534 133.398 20.864 18,54% Cheese 246.528 284.524 37.996 15,41% Milk 159.736 153.883 -5.853 -3,66% Cream 114.164 131.880 17.716 15,52% On the import side, August registered continued increases in lactose, whey, and cheese. Total imports rose 4.68%, equivalent to 26 million kilos in LME, compared with 4.75% growth in July. New Zealand imports Year to date August 2025 Product YTD August '24 YTD August '25 ∆ ∆% Whey 0404.10 5.236 6.829 1.593 30,42% Cheese 0406 6.102 6.911 809 13,26% Lactose 1702.11 & 19 63.440 64.784 1.344 2,12% As of August, theoretical stocks have risen from 1.206 billion kilos LME at the start of the year to 1.306 billion kilos LME. This level represents 12.47% of New Zealand’s YTD milk production, which is relatively high. The increase reflects both stronger milk production and higher imports. Current theoretical stocks stand at 8.29%, up from the beginning of the year.