Smaller decline than expected at the GDT Event 388

Event 388 recorded a modest decline of 0.8%. This outcome was significantly less negative than forecast, as the “All Contracts” projection had anticipated a 5.0% fall and the “C2” forecast expected a 1.75% decline. The average winning price closed at $4,041 per ton, representing a marginal decrease of 0.05% compared to Event 387.New Zealand’s offered volume declined by 1.71% from the previous event, leaving the total at 39,812 tons, almost unchanged from Event 387. The reduction was primarily driven by the absence of BMP. New Zealand’s cumulative milk production has increased by 1.36% through July, adding 121 million kilo.Results of the GDT Event 387: PRICE INDEX DOWN -0.8%, AWP $ 4,041 NZ Supply AMF DOWN -1.5%, AWP $6,802 ↓ BUTTER DOWN -0.8%, AWP $ 6,892 ↓ Cheddar UP 2.2%, AWP $4,814 ↑ SMP DOWN -0.3%, AWP $ 2,615 ↓ WMP DOWN - 0.8%, AWP $ 3,790 ↓ European and US Supply EU Butter (Solarec) N.A./ N.A. (average price) ↔ Mozzarella DOWN -9.6% AWP $ 3,860 ↓ Lactose ( Arla) N.A. AWP N.A. ↔ SMP W-Europe, Arla, DOWN -1.18%, AWP $ 2,636 (average price) ↓ SMP W-Europe, Solarec, DOWN -2.75%, AWP $ 2,597 (average price) ↓ SMP USA N.A., / AWP N.A.. ↔ WMP W-Europe, Solarec DOWN -4.43% AWP $ 4.392 (average price) ↓ The GDT Price Index also recorded a 0.8% decline, with the average winning price reaching $4,041 per ton. Despite the decrease, the result was more positive than expected, as it outperformed prior forecasts from SGX based on the “C2” and “All Contracts” indicators. The event revealed notable price spreads between front-month and later-dated contracts, particularly in AMF and butter. NZ Front Deferred Last vs front AMF $6.845 $6.680 -2,41% BUTTER $7.005 $6.830 -2,50% CHEDDAR $4.845 $4.752 -1,92% SMP $2.620 $2.625 0,19% WMP $3.845 $3.850 0,13% European and US SupplyIn Europe, most product prices trended lower, with the exceptions of Solarec butter, Ala lactose, and US SMP, which remained unchanged. However, US SMP was not offered during this event. On the day after the auction, the CME spot call session recorded U.S. SMP settling at $2,664 per ton on an FOB basis. WMP 03/09/2025 17/09/2025 ∆ ∆% September $3.760 $3.773 $13 0,35% October $3.675 $3.640 -$35 -0,95% November $3.665 $3.635 -$30 -0,82% December $3.665 $3.635 -$30 -0,82% January $3.680 $3.665 -$15 -0,41% February $3.685 $3.665 -$20 -0,54% SMP September $2.575 $2.600 $25 0,97% October $2.615 $2.555 -$60 -2,29% November $2.640 $2.570 -$70 -2,65% December $2.685 $2.595 -$90 -3,35% January $2.720 $2.635 -$85 -3,13% February $2.755 $2.660 -$95 -3,45% AMF September $6.865 $6.805 -$60 -0,87% October $6.820 $6.690 -$130 -1,91% November $6.790 $6.645 -$145 -2,14% December $6.780 $6.690 -$90 -1,33% January $6.800 $6.700 -$100 -1,47% February $6.800 $6.700 -$100 -1,47% BUTTER September $6.915 $6.950 $35 0,51% October $6.750 $6.610 -$140 -2,07% November $6.730 $6.550 -$180 -2,67% December $6.700 $6.525 -$175 -2,61% January $6.760 $6.560 -$200 -2,96% February $6.760 $6.600 -$160 -2,37% The SGX market reacted negatively in the immediate aftermath of the auction. WMP, SMP, and butter saw the C1 contract rise, while the steepest declines were observed in SMP, butter, and AMF. Average prices C1-C6 03/09/2025 17/09/2025 ∆ ∆% WMP $3.688 $3.669 -$20 -0,53% SMP $2.665 $2.603 -$63 -2,35% AMF $6.809 $6.705 -$104 -1,53% BUTTER $6.769 $6.633 -$137 -2,02% Despite these movements, the overall negative response to the GDT event on SGX remained modest.