Bearish signals persist at the GDT Event 388

Since the last Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction, market sentiment has remained bearish. Event 388 may provide further direction, as international dairy futures in the United States, New Zealand, and the European Union have continued trending downward. Based on SGX Futures calculations, both the “all contracts” and “C2” pricing methods point to potential downside compared with the winning prices of the previous GDT event.Key Market InsightsNew Zealand milk production: Year-to-date (July) production rose by 1.36%, equivalent to an additional 121 million kilo.SGX Dairy futures: Market sentiment has weakened over recent weeks. Average futures prices for all commodities are significantly lower compared with winning prices at Event 387.Volumes & products: With the new season underway, the offered volumes remain substantial. Today’s auction volume is 39,812 tons, down 1.71% from Event 387 due to the absence of BMP.Exports: Year-to-date (July 2025) exports increased by 1.10%, or 140 million kilo in Liquid Milk Equivalent (LME).Expected price impact: If Event 388 results align with SGX Futures, the GDT price index could fall by 1.75% under the “C2” method and by 3.5% under the “all contracts” method. This suggests weaker pricing in the deferred contracts compared with the nearby.Composition of volumes: Whole Milk Powder (WMP) accounted for 53.1% of total volumes in Event 387. Any significant price shift in WMP will therefore have a strong influence on both market sentiment and the overall index.Global outlook: Dairy futures across New Zealand, the United States, and the European Union have all remained under pressure.Futures development: Since the previous GDT event, average futures across contracts C1–C6 have moved lower relative to the Average Winning Prices (AWPs) recorded in Event 387. AMF -2.97% SMP -0.41% Butter -5.15% WMP -4.50% Overall, event 388 is shaping up against a backdrop of continued bearish sentiment. Futures markets point to further price weakness, and current market fundamentals reinforce this negative outlook.