Futures continue to see bearish development

The thirty-eighth trading week of 2025 was once again marked by negativity across all key global dairy markets, with notable declines in New Zealand, the United States, and Europe. It will be interesting to see how the GDT develops on 16 September.When reviewing the CME markets, we observe a general downward trend across all dairy products, except for the Whey contracts C1, C5, and C6. CONTRACT CME 08-sep 11-sep ∆ ∆ % SMP September $2.766 $2.756 ↓ -0,38% October $2.684 $2.640 ↓ -1,64% November $2.625 $2.561 ↓ -2,44% December $2.606 $2.561 ↓ -1,73% January $2.596 $2.560 ↓ -1,40% February $2.596 $2.564 ↓ -1,23% Average $2.645 $2.607 ↓ -1,46% Butter September $4.872 $4.729 ↓ -2,94% October $4.880 $4.519 ↓ -7,39% November $4.927 $4.530 ↓ -8,05% December $4.995 $4.574 ↓ -8,43% January $5.049 $4.647 ↓ -7,95% February $5.109 $4.718 ↓ -7,66% Average $4.972 $4.620 ↓ -7,09% Whey September $1.262 $1.270 ↑ 0,61% October $1.282 $1.274 ↓ -0,60% November $1.268 $1.262 ↓ -0,43% December $1.213 $1.197 ↓ -1,32% January $1.168 $1.190 ↑ 1,89% February $1.157 $1.190 ↑ 2,86% Average $1.225 $1.231 ↑ 0,46% Block September $3.990 $3.968 ↓ -0,55% Cheese October $3.810 $3.702 ↓ -2,84% November $3.836 $3.708 ↓ -3,33% December $3.834 $3.757 ↓ -2,01% January $3.862 $3.803 ↓ -1,54% February $3.880 $3.836 ↓ -1,14% Average $3.869 $3.796 ↓ -1,89% Milk September $38,93 $38,80 ↓ -0,34% Class III October $37,19 $35,98 ↓ -3,26% November $37,26 $35,96 ↓ -3,49% December $37,87 $36,99 ↓ -2,33% January $38,03 $37,41 ↓ -1,62% February $38,12 $37,57 ↓ -1,45% Average $37,90 $37,12 ↓ -2,06% Milk September $37,70 $37,13 ↓ -1,52% Class IV October $37,30 $35,32 ↓ -5,32% November $36,90 $34,57 ↓ -6,33% December $37,70 $35,41 ↓ -6,08% January $37,92 $35,65 ↓ -5,99% February $38,03 $36,07 ↓ -5,16% Average $37,59 $35,69 ↓ -5,06% The CME spot market also moved negatively for all commodities, except for Whey. CME Spot market 08-sep 12-sep ∆ ∆ % Dry Whey $1.257 $1.306 ↑ 3,95% Cheese Blocks $3.737 $3.560 ↓ -4,72% Cheese Barrels $3.748 $3.555 ↓ -5,15% Butter $4.464 $4.101 ↓ -8,15% SMP $2.690 $2.568 ↓ -4,51% Following the weakness seen last week in the wake of the GDT auction on 2 September, sentiment on the SGX dairy futures market remained very bearish, with all contracts declining, except for Butter C1 and Milk ’25, which both remained unchanged. SGX 08-sep 12-sep WMP September $3.760 $3.735 ↓ -0,66% October $3.680 $3.640 ↓ -1,09% November $3.680 $3.640 ↓ -1,09% December $3.680 $3.640 ↓ -1,09% January $3.705 $3.655 ↓ -1,35% February $3.720 $3.650 ↓ -1,88% Average $3.704 $3.660 ↓ -1,19% SMP September $2.590 $2.595 ↓ -1,09% October $2.610 $2.610 ↓ -1,45% November $2.650 $2.635 ↓ -1,09% December $2.675 $2.655 ↓ -0,72% January $2.720 $2.690 ↓ -1,40% February $2.755 $2.720 ↓ -0,88% Average $2.667 $2.651 ↓ -1,10% AMF September $6.865 $6.840 ↓ -0,36% October $6.760 $6.705 ↓ -0,81% November $6.765 $6.720 ↓ -0,67% December $6.770 $6.715 ↓ -0,81% January $6.780 $6.750 ↓ -0,44% February $6.780 $6.750 ↓ -0,44% Average $6.787 $6.747 ↓ -0,59% Butter September $6.915 $6.915 ↔ 0,00% October $6.685 $6.550 ↓ -2,02% November $6.630 $6.550 ↓ -1,21% December $6.640 $6.525 ↓ -1,73% January $6.675 $6.560 ↓ -1,72% February $6.675 $6.560 ↓ -1,72% Average $6.703 $6.610 ↓ -1,39% Milk Sept '25 $10,15 $10,15 ↔ 0,00% Sept '26 $10,08 $9,89 ↓ -1,88% Sept '27 $9,45 $9,37 ↓ -0,85% European dairy markets showed a much weaker tone this week, with all dairy contracts moving down. EEX in EUR 08-sep 12-sep SMP September €2.340 €2.311 ↓ -1,24% October €2.335 €2.293 ↓ -1,80% November €2.342 €2.293 ↓ -2,09% December €2.344 €2.293 ↓ -2,18% January €2.332 €2.285 ↓ -2,02% February €2.333 €2.300 ↓ -1,41% Average €2.338 €2.296 ↓ -1,79% Butter September €6.495 €6.200 ↓ -4,54% October €6.040 €5.583 ↓ -7,57% November €6.014 €5.516 ↓ -8,28% December €5.909 €5.515 ↓ -6,67% January €5.983 €5.517 ↓ -7,79% February €5.946 €5.518 ↓ -7,20% Average €6.065 €5.642 ↓ -6,98% Whey September €973 $935 ↓ -3,91% October €985 €961 ↓ -2,44% November €1.000 €968 ↓ -3,20% December €1.001 €972 ↓ -2,90% January €1.000 €987 ↓ -1,30% February €1.003 €989 ↓ -1,40% Average €994 €969 ↓ -2,52% Liq Milk September €53,26 €53,24 ↓ -0,04% October €52,65 €52,50 ↓ -0,28% November €52,13 €51,88 ↓ -0,48% December €51,68 €51,43 ↓ -0,48% January €51,12 €50,72 ↓ -0,78% February €50,33 €49,64 ↓ -1,37% Average €51,86 €51,57 ↓ -0,57% EEX in USD euro/Dollar 1,1764 1,1735 >> -0,25% 08-sep 12-sep Smp September $2.753 $2.712 ↓ -1,48% October $2.747 $2.691 ↓ -2,04% November $2.755 $2.691 ↓ -2,33% December $2.757 $2.691 ↓ -2,42% January $2.743 $2.681 ↓ -2,26% February $2.745 $2.699 ↓ -1,66% Average $2.750 $2.694 ↓ -2,03% Butter September $7.641 $7.276 ↓ -4,78% October $7.105 $6.552 ↓ -7,79% November $7.075 $6.473 ↓ -8,51% December $6.951 $6.472 ↓ -6,90% January $7.038 $6.474 ↓ -8,02% February $6.995 $6.475 ↓ -7,43% Average $7.134 $6.620 ↓ -7,20% Whey September $1.145 $1.097 ↓ -4,14% October $1.159 $1.128 ↓ -2,68% November $1.176 $1.136 ↓ -3,44% December $1.178 $1.141 ↓ -3,14% January $1.176 $1.158 ↓ -1,54% February $1.180 $1.161 ↓ -1,64% Average $1.169 $1.137 ↓ -2,76% Liq Milk September $62,66 $62,48 ↓ -0,28% October $61,94 $61,61 ↓ -0,53% November $61,33 $60,88 ↓ -0,72% December $60,80 $60,35 ↓ -0,73% January $60,14 $59,52 ↓ -1,03% February $59,21 $58,25 ↓ -1,61% Average $61,01 $60,52 ↓ -0,81% A comparison of 2025 performance with the final trading session of 2024 reveals a strong regional divergence. The United States and the European Union registered the weakest results, with pricing under pressure across key dairy products (except for EEX Whey, which moved up). In contrast, New Zealand stood out as the strongest performer, with most pricing showing strong improvement, except for WMP, SMP, and AMF, which moved down. Region Product Change 12/09/'25 VS 27/12/'24 USA CME WMP -14,14% BUTTER -23,04% WHEY -18,98% BLOCK CHEESE -8,34% MILK CLASS III -15,22% MILK CLASS IV -22,68% USA CME SPOT CALL MARKET WHEY -20,21% CHEDDAR BLOCKS -13,22% CHEDDAR BARRELS -7,86% BUTTER -27,60% SMP -16,12% NEW ZEALAND SGX WMP -1,37% SMP -6,50% AMF -0,90% BUTTER 4,85% MILK '25 6,48% MILK '26 5,32% MILK '27 6,48% EU EEX SMP -20,64% BUTTER -26,81% WHEY -5,50% LIQ MILK -10,63%