A contrasting summer: Germany rebounds, Italy falls, France holds

European milk production shows diverging trends this summer, with Germany finally hinting at recovery after months of decline, while Italy faces steep output losses. France stands out with relative stability, though weather extremes and animal health concerns cast uncertainty over future supply.Germany faced July with a decline in its milk production, output declining by 1.2% compared to the previous year to 2.74 million tons. While it represents an improvement against the 2.13% decline observed in June, milk production contracted throughout the year. Year-to-date production declined by 2.39% over the previous year, reaching 18.94 million tons as of July.Data for the regional contribution to July is not yet available. As of June, however, the German Office of Food and Agriculture (BLZ) identified that the overall decline has been driven by lower collections in almost every region, especially Niedersachsen/Bremen (-2.51% to 3.66 million tons) and Bayern (-2.22% to 3.93 million tons). The only region reporting a slight increase in production was Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (+0.86% to 734,823 tons). This suggests that the overall contraction in production was perceived across the whole German landscape, rather than observed in specific points.The overall decline occurred amid an increasing trend in prices. Farmgate milk prices averaged €53.28 per 100 kilo, reflecting a 0.15% decline over the previous month but a 15.98% increase over the previous year. Higher prices and favorable feed prices would normally incentivize production, but the lower volumes underscore the effects of the dry spring and the incidence of the bluetongue virus. The TSIS Animal Disease Information System reported 175 outbreaks of the BTV-3 variant in Germany between May and August, which could have affected dairy production and reproduction.More recently, ZMB reports a pivot point in the trend. After a whole year of decline, milk production finally increased over the previous year since week 29. In week 33, production faced an annual increase of 2.6% compared to the previous year. These developments reflect a sustained production that will partially offset the negative results observed throughout the year.FranceIn contrast, France observed a relative stability in production, with volumes increasing slightly to 0.72% over the previous year to 1.97 million tons. This partially offset a slight annual decline of 0.83% in cumulative production, totaling 14.28 million tons as of July.Since June, the milk collection has contracted slightly due to a strong heat wave and drought, especially in Grand Est and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté. Producers have reported daily declines between 6 and 7 liters per cow associated with heat stress. Nonetheless, FranceAgriMer’s milk production indicator reports a recovery in production for all other regions as of the 35th week of 2025, increasing significantly over the previous year and the 5-year average.The increase in production is partly related to favorable milk prices, averaging €49.18 per 100 kilo in July. This marked an increase of 0.57% over the previous month and 5.67% over the previous year.Sanitary concerns could disrupt the balance in milk production. The re-emergence of the bluetongue virus in western France and outbreaks of Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease and Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) contribute to a higher mortality, reduced fertility, lower yields, and declining milk quality.LSD has become a particular concern in the Savoie region. It includes symptoms like fever, loss of appetite, nodules, edema, and conjunctivitis, which directly affect milk yields, animal welfare, and farm profitability. With control measures limited to preventive culling, vaccination campaigns, and movement restrictions, there is a tangible risk of disruptions to milk supply chains if the disease spreads further.ItalyMeanwhile, Italy’s milk production faced a remarkable decline in summer, with output dropping by 4.1% year-over-year to 1.03 million tons. This added up to a challenging 2025, with a cumulative output reaching 7.61 million tons through July, representing a 3.91% decline from the previous year. In contrast to Germany, Italy’s milk production has been driven strongly by declines in Lombardy’s cumulative output, which declined by 2.23% over the previous year to 3.17 million tons as of June, according to CLAL. Further declines in Lazio (14.5% to 119,156 tons) and Emilia Romagna (-1.4% to 1.09 million tons) regions set the overall downward trend, despite important growth in Puglia (+6.9% to 224,822 tons).As for Italy’s farm gate prices, they remained stable over the previous month but increased by 15.91% over the previous year, averaging €58.61 per 100 kilo in July.