EU Dairy exports drop amid import rebound

In June 2025, overall European Union (EU) dairy exports declined by 3.42%, equivalent to approximately 94 million kilo in liquid milk equivalent (LME). This marks a contraction in total export volumes compared with the same month in 2024, highlighting persistent challenges in several product categories and export markets.Despite this overall downturn, certain product groups delivered notably strong results. Shipments of skimmed milk powder (SMP), casein, full-fat milk powder (FFMP), butter, and a range of liquid dairy products all recorded solid growth, reflecting resilient demand in key destinations. In contrast, exports of cream and condensed milk weakened, exerting downward pressure on the overall trade balance. EU Exports June 2025 Product June '24 June '25 ∆ ∆% SMP 61.180 67.123 5.943 9,71% WMP 18.466 12.010 -6.456 -34,96% Whey 65.984 60.798 -5.186 -7,86% Products of Natural milk constituents n.e.s. 7.245 7.169 -76 -1,05% WPC80/WPI's 4.396 4.157 -239 -5,44% Casein 5.672 6.686 1.014 17,88% Caseinates 2.167 1.975 -192 -8,86% MPC 2.365 2.141 -224 -9,47% Lactose 21.952 17.249 -4.703 -21,42% FFMP 29.218 33.478 4.260 14,58% I/F 44.215 43.039 -1.176 -2,66% Cheese 121.486 117.023 -4.463 -3,67% Butter 19.064 20.539 1.475 7,74% AMF 2.310 2.283 -27 -1,17% Cream 25.815 18.648 -7.167 -27,76% Yoghurt 26.564 28.978 2.414 9,09% Fermented milk 17.769 21.692 3.923 22,08% Condensed 25.698 21.524 -4.174 -16,24% Milk 72.710 79.336 6.626 9,11% By the end of June 2025, the EU’s year-to-date export performance showed further deterioration. The cumulative decline deepened from 1.18% in May to 1.47% in June, representing a shortfall of around 237 million kilo of LME compared with the same period last year. A key driver of this decline has been elevated butterfat prices within the EU. Persistently high prices for butter, anhydrous milk fat (AMF), and other fat-rich commodities have reduced the competitiveness of European exports, prompting global buyers to shift toward alternative suppliers offering more attractive price levels. EU Exports YTD June Product YTD June'24 YTD June '25 ∆ ∆% SMP 390.350 399.518 9.168 2,35% WMP 114.377 88.319 -26.058 -22,78% Whey 368.633 369.603 970 0,26% Products of Natural milk constituents n.e.s. 52.609 49.036 -3.573 -6,79% WPC80/WPI's 25.358 28.526 3.168 12,49% Casein 27.792 29.810 2.018 7,26% Caseinates 13.201 10.500 -2.701 -20,46% MPC 12.506 14.204 1.698 13,58% Lactose 138.382 124.001 -14.381 -10,39% FFMP 181.956 192.566 10.610 5,83% I/F 237.646 240.587 2.941 1,24% Cheese 680.499 689.289 8.790 1,29% Butter 119.461 118.287 -1.174 -0,98% AMF 14.029 12.027 -2.002 -14,27% Cream 137.698 123.465 -14.233 -10,34% Yoghurt 161.796 170.195 8.399 5,19% Fermented milk 105.231 121.482 16.251 15,44% Condensed 157.122 142.684 -14.438 -9,19% Milk 465.362 420.965 -44.397 -9,54% On the import side, trade activity strengthened significantly in June. Import volumes rose by 5.28%, or 16 million kilo of LME, marking a strong rebound from May’s 4.93% decline. This recovery was driven largely by butterfat-based products, particularly butter, AMF, cheese, and cream, all of which recorded notable gains. Within the liquid dairy category, fermented milk stood out with a sharp rise in import volumes, while other liquid dairy products also increased, though at a more moderate pace. EU Imports June '25 Product June '24 June '25 ∆ ∆% SMP 5.016 5.298 282 5,62% WMP 977 164 -813 -83,21% Whey 3.911 3.365 -546 -13,96% WPC80/WPI's 2.427 2.097 -330 -13,60% Casein 1.377 1.036 -341 -24,76% Caseinates 42 121 79 188,10% MPC 1.263 1.465 202 15,99% Lactose 1.773 821 -952 -53,69% I/F 224 389 165 73,66% Cheese 14.660 14.886 226 1,54% Butter 1.174 2.441 1.267 107,92% AMF 2.984 4.133 1.149 38,51% Cream 2.201 3.809 1.608 73,06% Conc. Liq whey 2.544 3.150 606 23,82% Yoghurt 1.050 1.363 313 29,81% Fermented 1.387 3.821 2.434 175,49% Condensed 3.124 4.228 1.104 35,34% Milk 55.362 57.349 1.987 3,59% Year-to-date import performance further underlined this positive momentum. Cumulative imports grew by 2.73% (47 million kilo LME) through May, and by June the growth rate had accelerated to 4.67%, equivalent to 95 million kilo of additional LME compared with the same period in 2024. EU Imports YTD June '25 Product YTD June'24 YTD June '25 ∆ ∆% SMP 23.418 22.879 -539 -2,30% WMP 8.912 9.514 602 6,75% Whey 23.270 23.537 267 1,15% WPC80/WPI's 19.935 20.064 129 0,65% Casein 5.976 4.683 -1.293 -21,64% Caseinates 312 595 283 90,71% MPC 8.827 7.163 -1.664 -18,85% Lactose 26.869 18.168 -8.701 -32,38% I/F 1.771 1.827 56 3,16% Cheese 93.180 97.074 3.894 4,18% Butter 5.559 13.367 7.808 140,46% AMF 11.399 18.786 7.387 64,80% Cream 13.130 27.183 14.053 107,03% Conc. Liq whey 16.440 15.526 -914 -5,56% Yoghurt 6.338 5.681 -657 -10,37% Fermented 15.874 15.653 -221 -1,39% Condensed 23.326 29.326 6.000 25,72% Milk 413.031 400.645 -12.386 -3,00% Estimated theoretical dairy stocks within the EU stand currently at approximately 1.3 billion kilo LME. This represents a sharp contraction of about 41% since the beginning of the year. The decline has been driven primarily by reduced milk output compared with 2024, tightening overall supply conditions across the region