GDT Event 379: Strong price rise and increased volume

The result of GDT Event 379 this week showed a stronger-than-expected increase of 4.6% in the index price, with the final winning price reaching $4,516 per ton. This is a 2.99% increase compared to the winning price in Event 378.The volume of New Zealand products offered was slightly higher than in the previous event, increasing by 2.78% or 364 tons, reaching 13,460 tons. The volume change was mainly due to the inclusion of buttermilk powder in this auction, along with smaller changes in other commodities: AMF (-50 tons), Butter (+3 tons), Cheddar (+60 tons), SMP (+25 tons), and WMP (-254 tons).New Zealand’s season-to-date milk production for March stands 2.25% higher, comparable to 422 million kilo. Additionally, all New Zealand prices increased during this auction.GDT Event 379 Results – May 6, 2025 PRICE INDEX UP 4.6%, AWP $ 4,516 NZ Supply AMF UP 5.4%, AWP $7,212 ↑ BUTTER UP 3,8%, AWP $ 7,992 ↑ Cheddar UP 12,0%, AWP $5,519 ↑ SMP UP 0,5%, AWP $ 2,828 ↑ WMP UP 6,2%, AWP $ 4,374 ↑ European and US Supply EU Butter (Solarec) DOWN -1.37%, AWP $ 8.153 (average price) ↓ Mozzarella DOWN -0.31% AWP $ 4,750 ↓ Lactose ( Arla) UP 16.8%/ AWP $1,611 ↑ SMP W-Europe, Arla, DOWN -0.57%, AWP $ 2,645 (average price) ↓ SMP W-Europe, Solarec, UP 0.55%, AWP $ 2,720 (average price) ↑ SMP USA N.A., / N.A. ↔ WMP W-Europe, Solarec DOWN - 0.59% AWP $ 4.785 (average price) ↓ The GDT price index rose by 4.6%, with the average winning price ending at $4,516. This was significantly better than anticipated by SGX ahead of the auction.In this event, the spreads between the front contracts and the last contracts were very wide, except for SMP. All other products were in backwardation. NZ Front Deferred Last vs front AMF $7.175 $6.905 -3,76% BUTTER $8.097 $7.475 -7,68% CHEDDAR $5.555 $5.095 -8,28% SMP $2.700 $2.671 -1,07% WMP $4.485 $4.030 -10,14% European and US supplyEU prices were mixed but mostly down. US SMP was not offered in this event. On the same day as the GDT event, the CME spot call session saw US SMP settle at $2,766 per ton on an FOB basis.SGX’s outlook on the first day after the auction was very positive: WMP 16/04/2025 07/05/2025 ∆ ∆% May $4.135 $4.460 $325 7,86% June $4.075 $4.405 $330 8,10% July $3.930 $4.195 $265 6,74% August $3.805 $4.045 $240 6,31% September $3.685 $3.885 $200 5,43% October $3.680 $3.860 $180 4,89% SMP May $2.945 $2.980 $35 1,19% June $2.945 $2.995 $50 1,70% July $2.940 $2.950 $10 0,34% August $2.860 $2.905 $45 1,57% September $2.845 $2.905 $60 2,11% October $2.855 $2.865 $10 0,35% AMF May $6.800 $7.100 $300 4,41% June $6.890 $7.050 $160 2,32% July $6.740 $6.900 $160 2,37% August $6.675 $7.030 $355 5,32% September $6.650 $6.955 $305 4,59% October $6.600 $6.900 $300 4,55% BUTTER May $7.480 $7.800 $320 4,28% June $7.380 $7.600 $220 2,98% July $7.040 $7.300 $260 3,69% August $6.590 $7.000 $410 6,22% September $6.430 $6.800 $370 5,75% October $6.375 $6.600 $225 3,53% All futures moved up, except for SMP, which only saw a slight increase. Average prices C1-C6 16/04/2025 07/05/2025 ∆ ∆% WMP $3.885 $4.142 $257 6,61% SMP $2.898 $2.933 $35 1,21% AMF $6.726 $6.989 $263 3,92% BUTTER $6.883 $7.183 $301 4,37% After this event, the twenty-third of the 24/25 season, the theoretical yield for Fonterra has improved by 19.39%, or an additional $413 million, compared to the previous season. Season-to-date, as of Event 379, a total of approximately 604,762 mt of the mentioned New Zealand products have been sold through the GDT platform, and 678,600 mt when including sales through the Pulse auctions.